Analys från DailyFX

Bank of Canada Takes USD/CAD Toward Trend Support

Published

8 år ago

12 april, 2017

DailyFX

Will Oil Continue To Support CAD in 2Q? See our forecast to find out what’s driving market trends!

Talking Points:

USD/CAD Technical Strategy: Favoring CAD Strength Continuing
US Yields Crude Oil helping to guide USD/CAD lower
Break and Close 1.3265 Opens Door For 1.3000 Retest

The Canadian Dollar broke higher taking USD/CAD down toward trend support. The move was triggered by an upbeat Bank of Canada Rate Announcement that saw rates remain at 0.5%, but with the Bank of Canada warming up to the idea of sustainable growth in Canada. USD/CAD has become a hot topic as the USD is driven much by US Yields that are sitting at 2017 lows in some maturities and the CAD is driven by Oil, which is recently having its best string of Bullish sessions in years.

Near-term support on USD/CAD on a closing basis is now in the 1.3265 area (March Low), with a daily close below that opening the door for a challenge of 1.3186, a 100% Fibonacci Extension from the Mar 9th high. Alternatively, a turn back above the April Opening Range high (1.3455) paves the way for a choppy continuation in the Bullish Channel toward 1.3760.

The risk to watch for USD/CAD Bulls is whether we are beginning an impulsive decline. Given the choppy nature of the move higher since May, many traders have been watching for a continuation of the January 2017 move that saw a ~16% decline in a little more than 4-months. A technical break of 1.30164 (1.618% extension from Mar. 9 high) and the 2017 low of 1.2968 would favor the impulsive decline that could see sharp gains in CAD.

Lastly, keep an eye on RSI(5) on the Daily chart. We could soon see a move into oversold territory. Such extremes do not necessarily represent a reversion to the mean trade. It could be an indication of an impulsive decline if we hit oversold on RSI(5) by showing below 20 while never breaking above the April Opening Range high.

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

USD/CAD Sentiment:

USDCAD: Retail trader data shows 49.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.01 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.9% lower than yesterday and unchanged from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.3% lower than yesterday and 16.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDCAD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDCAD trading bias.

What do retail traders’ buy/sell decisions hint about the CAD trend? Find out here!

—

Shorter-Term USD/JPY Technical Levels: Wednesday, April 12, 2017

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

Bank of Canada Takes USD/CAD Toward Trend Support

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form