Analys från DailyFX

British Pound, Euro Reverse and Post Modest Gains vs USD on Stronger Data

Published

12 år ago

1 juli, 2013

DailyFX

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is slightly lower on the day as the rest of the majors outside the Japanese Yen have started to claw back the prior two week’s losses, although any such bearish price action exhibited by the US Dollar is largely seen as an opportunity to get long. The three safe havens – the Swiss Franc, the US Dollar, and the Yen – are trailing overall, while the commodity currencies – the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand Dollars – are among the top performers amid relatively calm beginning of the week, of the month (July), and of the quarter (3Q’13) flows, typically a more volatile period.

Accordingly, today’s price action is very indicative of only a modest desire for risky assets, despite stronger than expected data from the Euro-Zone and the United Kingdom. Notably, peripheral PMI Manufacturing surveys (Italian and Spanish) for June outperformed, as did the UK’s PMI Manufacturing report; the EURUSD climbed above $1.3050 on the news while the GBPUSD retook $1.5200. Whether or not the early-week bullish price action in the European currencies can be sustained through the week’s close is in question, given the significant overhang of the Bank of England Rate Decision, the European Central Bank Rate Decision, and the June US labor market report, all of which are due between Thursday and Friday.

Looking ahead to the North American calendar today (see more below), the US ISM Manufacturing (JUN) report should generate significant interest despite a very meager print expected. While manufacturing activity hasn’t been the cog to strong American growth in several decades, strength in this sector implies a healthier economy in general, and therefore, the print will be important insofar as it will set sentiment for the US Dollar in the days leading up to the June labor market report.

Taking a look at European credit, another bout of strength in peripheral debt has afforded the Euro room to rally on Monday, particularly against the Japanese Yen (the EURJPY tracks short-term peripheral debt closely). The Italian 2-year note yield has decreased to 1.853% (-6.6-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has decreased to 2.126% (-7.7-bps). Similarly, the Italian 10-year note yield has decreased to 4.492% (-4.8-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has decreased to 4.638% (-11.1-bps); lower yields imply higher prices.

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (versus USD): 10:45 GMT

AUD: +0.57%

NZD: +0.52%

EUR: +0.31%

GBP:+0.07%

CAD:+0.31%

CHF:+0.01%

JPY:-0.47%

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): -0.20% (+1.04% prior 5-days)

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

British_Pound_Euro_Reverse_and_Post_Modest_Gains_vs_USD_on_Stronger_Data_body_Picture_1.png, British Pound, Euro Reverse and Post Modest Gains vs USD on Stronger Data

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. Want the forecasts to appear right on your charts? Download the DailyFX News App.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form