Analys från DailyFX
CAC 40 Holds Range to Close Out Week
Talking Points:
- CAC 40 Holds Range to Close Out WeeK
- Intraday Reversals Begin Above 4,549.0
- Looking for additional trade ideas for stocks? Read Our Equities Market Forecast
The CAC 40 has gapped lower on the open, to trade near the bottom of an ongoing consolidation range. This decline in the CAC 40 has occurred as a general decline in European equities markets is occurring this morning. Top losers for the Index includes BNP Paribas (-2.67%) and AXA (-2.43%). At this time only two CAC 40 components are trading higher, Unibail-Rodamco (+1.99%) and Pernod Ricard (+0.43%).
Technically, the CAC 40 is still trading in an ongoing range, with prices set to close this week’s trading by consolidating for the 15th consecutive session. As seen below, the technical outlook for the Index is little changed from Tuesday’s report. While gaining ground yesterday, the Index has failed to make a significant high over the November 10th high of 4,606.70. Also with this morning’s selloff, the CAC 40 has still failed to breach the November 11th low of 4473.40. Going into next week’s trading, if this consolidation pattern remains valid, traders may continue to look for range based trading opportunities.
CAC 40, Daily Consolidation Pattern
(Created Using TradingView Charts)
In the short term, the CAC 40 is trading below the final point of intraday support found at 4,537.50. This area is denoted graphically below as the S4 Camarilla Pivot. Despite prices retracing from daily lows, if the Index remains below this pivot it may suggest that the Index may attempt to again trend lower into the close.
In the event of a bullish price reversal, traders should look for the CAC 40 to trade through the S4 pivot and then move on the S3 pivot found at 4,549.0. A reversal of this nature would suggest that prices are holding in their broader consolidation pattern, and traders may look for the CAC 40 to trade back towards points of resistance. Intraday this includes, the R3 pivot at 4,572.3and the R4 pivot found at 4,583.7.
CAC 40, 30 Minutes with Pivot
(Created Using TradingView Charts)
— Written by Walker, Analyst for DailyFX.com
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What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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