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Crude Oil, Gold Stalling as SPX 500 Sinks Back to Trend Support

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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Treading Water After Hitting Three-Week Low
  • SP 500 Challenging Rising Trend Support Once Again
  • Crude Oil, Gold Prices Stalling at Familiar Chart Levels

Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continues to tread water after sliding to a three-week low last week. A daily close below the 11834-9 area (May 20 close, 50% Fibonacci retracement) exposes the 61.8% level at 11790. Alternatively, a push above the 38.2% Fib at 11887 clears the way for a test of the 23.6% retracement at 11946.

Crude Oil, Gold Stalling as SPX 500 Sinks Back to Trend Support

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices pulled back to test rising trend line support set from late-March lows once again, a barrier reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2077.20. A break below that targets the 76.4% level at 2063.00. Alternatively, a turn above the 23.6% Fib expansion at 2093.50 targets the 38.2% threshold at 2107.70.

Crude Oil, Gold Stalling as SPX 500 Sinks Back to Trend Support

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to tread water below the $1200/oz figure. A break below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1175.79 exposes the 38.2% level at 1165.62. Alternatively, a move above the 14.6% Fib at 1182.06 targets the June 10 high at 1192.23.

Crude Oil, Gold Stalling as SPX 500 Sinks Back to Trend Support

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices may be resuming the recovery launched from mid-January lows after completing a Flag continuation pattern. Near-term resistance is at 66.69, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that exposing the 38.2% level at 70.25. Alternatively, a move below the 62.93-63.56 area (Flag top resistance-turned-support at, rising trend line) targets the 38.2% Fib retracement at 60.27.

Crude Oil, Gold Stalling as SPX 500 Sinks Back to Trend Support

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

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What’s inside:

  • EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
  • Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
  • Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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