Analys från DailyFX

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Break From Diagonal May Pressure Key Zone

Published

8 år ago

4 januari, 2017

DailyFX

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Talking Points:

Crude Oil Technical Strategy: USOIL focus turns lower to polarity zone 51.50/50.50
USD Over-extension could provide further support for crude oil into 2017
Crude Oil Price Forecast: Early 2017 Volatility Pattern Arises

The oil market may have provided the first legitimate head fake in markets for 2017. At the beginning of Tuesday’s trading session, the first official trading day in 2017, as many markets were observing New Year’s Day on Monday, Oil began trading to 18-month highs by trading above $55 a barrel. The initial move higher had credibility as OPEC’s deal compliance seemed to be coming to fruition on initial reports of firm’s production after the official start of the production cuts agreed to in Vienna in late November.

Shortly after midmorning trade, oil had completely reversed earlier gains and eventually closed nearly 3% lower on the day. The aggressive reversal aligned with the volatility pattern we mentioned in the late December article the discussed in developing rising wedge pattern that can either be in ending diagonal preceding sharp losses or a leading diagonal that would favor aggressive gains. Either way, volatility could be a mainstay in the energy market in January 2017.

Looking at the chart below, the critical point appears to be the polarity zone where we look for past resistance to turning in the current support. The polarity zone occurs between $51.50 a barrel down to $50.50, and if the market found support at the sound, we would favor continued gains in Q1 2017. However, if the market fails to hold above the polarity zone and eventually trades back below $50 a barrel where the market found support in early December, we would begin to favor the ending diagonal view. An ending diagonal would have us anticipating a test of support at the late November high near $49 a barrel followed by the November 29 high or low near $45 a barrel.

The chart below shows a Modified-Schiff Pitchfork that has done an excellent job of framing price action. Tuesday’s turnaround happened at internal channel resistance near $55 a barrel. Initial support within the bullish channel takes place at the median line within the polarity zone that currently stands at $51.40 a barrel.

Should the price continue to hold above this level on a closing basis, we will favor a move toward the top of the channel near $59/60 per barrel.Should a reversal develop in the price of Crude Oil, we would be on the watch for the price to break down through the rising support levels mentioned above at $49/45. Only a break below this zone would take us from Bullish to Neutral. Until then, we will favor eventual upside heading into 2017. Regardless, we will expect further volatility in this key market.

H4 Crude Oil Price Chart: Crude Oil Volatility Opens 2017 with Focus Now On Prior Resistance at $51

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT Courtesy of TradingView

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Key Levels Over the Next 48-hrs of Trading as of Tuesday, January 3, 2017

T.Y.

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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