Analys från DailyFX

Crude Oil Price Forecast: DoE Inventory Draw Halts OPEC Doubt Effect

Published

9 år ago

26 oktober, 2016

DailyFX

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Talking Points:

Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Break Of Triangle Support ($51-$49/bbl) Turns Bias ST Neutral
Another inventory draw helps neutralize a week of price declines

Oil prices are attempting to halt their third day of declines after the EIA U.S. oil inventories showed the seventh weekly draw of inventories in eight weeks. Aggregate inventory in the U.S. declined in the U.S. by 553k bbl, against median estimates of a ~2M bbl build.

Ironically, the inventory decline could continue to make negotiations difficult surrounding the OPEC agreement and Russia to come together to cut production to support oil prices. The irony comes from the price of Oil is sitting near $50 based on the hope of a deal to cut production, while nearly 2-months of inventory draws in the U.S. could keep members from committing to action, so they do not miss out on the rise in demand and price with fixed output limits.

Interested In a Quick Guide about OPEC, Click Here

Our recent note shared that Russia is not ready to commit to a cut and that Iraq is seeking an exemption from the OPEC deal expected to be finalized or nullified on November 30 in Vienna. If the request for exemptions mount, Saudi Arabia will likely either need to reduce the amount of the cut or step up and cut more production themselves, which would cause them to take a larger absolute drop given their production capacity, but like a similar relative cut to other members.

H4 Crude Oil Price Chart: Price Breaking Below Triangle Support Turns Bias Neutral

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT Courtesy of TradingView

The chart above shows the price of Crude Oil breaking bellow a bullish channel that had contained the price of Oil for most of October. The recent move also takes us below relative support of the price triangle, which helps us see that the move higher starting in late-October. The price action this week has also brought Crude Oil below the 21-DMA at $49.80/bbl, a clear directional bias indicator.

The price low on Wednesday (so far) on the move down from the 15-month high at $51.91 on October 19 was the 38.2% of the higher low in late September to the October 19 high at $48.95. Should this support hold, and an impulsive bullish move develop, we would await a price break above $51/bbl to turn from neutral to bullish. However, now that we’ve broken below the prior support of the triangle and the 21-DMA, if the price remains below $51/bbl, we could be working towards the 50% 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the September 27 to October 19 price range at $48.04 $47.12/bbl respectively. Either the break above $51/bbl or a move down to ~$47/bbl that begins rising aggressively to believe that an Elliott Wave ‘5’ is beginning that could take into the mid-$50/bbl range.

Given the potential for further downside, we’ll continue to put the burden of Bullish proof of Oil to surpass $51/bbl before anticipating new 15-month highs anytime soon.

Key Levels Over the Next 48-hrs of Trading As of Wednesday, October 26, 2016

T.Y.

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form