Analys från DailyFX

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Expect An Important Move Off 200-DMA

Published

9 år ago

4 november, 2016

DailyFX

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Talking Points:

Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Move to 200-DMA (43.47) Important
Anticipated Technical Washout to 200-DMA Now Watching Fundamentals Cross-Market Moves
Break Below 200-DMA would signal double-top that favors further downside

Are you ready for a big move in Oil? Ready or not, it appears we’re about to see one in addition to this week’s drop that has been the largest weekly decline since January when the CoT data showed us the Hedge Funds were starting to re-build long exposure. Whether you look at the upcoming geopolitical risk of the U.S. Presidential Election or the increasing implied volatility as we come to a key technical indicator, it appears we’re about to see a pivot or the start of a crash.

On Friday, we heard from OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo that Saudi, the largest OPEC producer, did not threaten to raise production if there was no deal on a cut. Barkindo has been busy trying to limit negative rumors swirling around about the unlikelihood of the deal to cut production before the formal negotiations on November 30 in Vienna.

Interested In a Quick Guide about OPEC,Click Here

The price of Oil has dropped just over 16% in 12 trading days. A further breakdown that would take us to a great than 20% loss would technically register a Bear Market. However, the most important development for technicians will be to see how the price reacts to the 200-DMA.

D1Crude Oil Price Chart: The 200-DMA Has Been Pivotal For USOIL

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT Courtesy of TradingView

The chart above walks you through price reactions off the 200-DMA, which is visualized as a blue line. The move on Friday toward the 200-DMA was the lowest intraday move since October 20, and the first touch of the 200-DMA since early August.

Now, we’ll look to see if the price slices through the 200-DMA on a continued breakdown, which could bring up the discussion of a double top at $51/bbl. There is a similar time delay between the two tops at $51/bbl at 94 days as there was on the ~99% move from $26.03 to the $51.64 level on June 9 that took 85 trading days.

Additionally, we’ve seen what appears like a three-wave move higher that was initially anticipated to be a strong move higher could be a corrective move higher. If there has been a definitive corrective move higher, we will anticipate an impulsive decline, which could take us aggressively lower toward the August low of $39/bbl and possibly a good deal lower.

In our recent note, we shared the idea that a return to the median line of the bearish channel above may still be in play. A continuation of the retracement would take the price below the 200-DMA ($43.418/bbl) and toward the median line at ~$35/bbl. A corrective move higher and double-top that has a neckline of $39.23 would also target an aggressive Bear move.

One component that has not shown up as the price of Oil trades at the 200-DMA is a strong US Dollar. From an Intermarket-perspective, Dollar strength tends to align with Oil weakness like we say in H2 2014. While the recent bearish move in Oil has been on reliant on the breakdown in OPEC negotiations, a resumption of USD strength that we saw in late October.

Key Levels Over the Next 48-hrs of Trading As of Friday, November 4, 2016

T.Y.

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form