Analys från DailyFX

Crude Oil Price Forecast: LT Price Resistance As Accord Gets Tested

Published

9 år ago

9 december, 2016

DailyFX

Talking Points:

Crude Oil Technical Strategy: USOIL Facing Resistance Zone From June High
Weekend OPEC Talks Turn Pressure To Non-OPEC Producers To Support Accord
Oil Strengthening Despite DXY Rise Shows Internal Strength Inflation Pressures

After an OPEC agreement to cut production had come to fruition, the focus has now turned to Non-OPEC producers like Russia who agreed to support OPEC’s attempt to stabilize the Oil marketing by also cutting production. Over 14 non-OPEC members are meeting in Vienna where the recent accord took place. However, and not surprisingly China and the U.S. producers will not be there, which have a very high capacity of production that could continue to limit the effect of the OPEC accord to reign in global production.

While the effects of the OPEC and non-OPEC accord will only be known in the long-term, one encouraging sign for US Oil Bulls despite the fear that one producer or maybe more may try and capture any slack created by the accord is in the options market.

Interested In a Quick Guide about OPEC, Click Here

There has been an increase in demand for WTI call options with the most active being the 2018 December $80 Brent Crude calls. Shorter-term active options per Bloomberg are mid-$50 ($53-55) calls for January February. While not predictive, this flurry of options action helps to show that there are institutions working to positions themselves to capture further upside should it develop in WTI.

D1Crude Oil Price Chart: USOIL Sticks Near $51/Bbl. After Extending Further From Prior Channel

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT Courtesy of TradingView

The support that we had been focusing on throughout the 2016 rebound and into 2017 was the rising trendline (black on the chart above) drawn from the first higher low alongside the 200-DMA (white). The other Bullish developments as we sit near $51/bbl is the price above the Ichimoku Cloud and a further separation from the bearish channel that framed price action for a majority of 2015 and 2016.

These technical developments put the burden of proof on the bears, and no longer the bulls. A breakout in price may be achieved if the price of Oil trades above the price range of the June high that is highlighted and extended on the chart with a yellow rectangle. Traditionally, rising support as shown via the technical tools mentioned above (trendline, Ichimoku, 200-DMA) into fixed resistance favor an eventual break of the resistance, which may launch Oil into a Bullish cycle as we move into 2017.

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If the price can break above the resistance mentioned that occupies $51.60/$50.22, further upside targets are provided by Fibonacci analysis over recent price ranges. When looking at the May 2015-February 2016 range as well as Fibonacci Expansions over the recent October-November range, we see a confluence of upside targets near $54/bbl in WTI (CFD: USOil) with the 78.6% retracement at $54.75.

A failure of the price to break above the yellow rectangle would favor a move down to rising support that lies between $48/45. Only a break below this zone would take us from neutral to bearish. Until then, we’ll favor eventual upside.

Key Levels Over the Next 48-hrs of Trading as of Friday, December 09, 2016

T.Y.

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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