Analys från DailyFX
Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Closes at 2017 Lows on EIA Report
Will Shale production spoil OPEC’s best–laid plans? To see our thoughts, access the DFX Oil forecast here.
Talking Points:
- Crude Oil Technical Strategy: price begins pushing below LT price channel support
- Crude tumbles awfully close to new 2017 lows, current 2017 low at $43.79/bbl
- IGCS Sentiment highlight: combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil – US Crude-bearish contrarian trading bias
The price of WTI Crude Oil fell to the lowest level in five weeks on Wednesday and came awfully close to the lowest level since November on an EIA report showing that crude supplies fell, but U.S. products like gasoline rose while demand fell. You can see on the chart below that this was enough to put further pressure on the price of Oil. Additionally, the USD, which tends to be inversely correlated to the price of oil strengthened after the Federal Reserve raised rates and stuck to a rather hawkish forecast on Wednesday.
In addition to the weekly inventory report from the EIA, a report from the IEA showing that non-OPEC supply is likelyset to outstrip global demand growth in 2018. The report adds to the widening of December 2017-December 2018 spreads resulting in Contango, which develops when the expected future spot prices trades at a discount to the futures price. This environment tends to give credence to the bearish view and arises when people are willing to pay a premium not to hold the commodity but to accept delivery at a future time, which indicates a supply gut or expenses incurred while holding the commodity until demand rises and it is used.
You’ll notice the price is extended to the downside, but that doesn’t mean that a pop is imminent given the difficult fundamental picture developing. Lingering Contango could keep a lack of bids, and a possible desire for US shale producers to hedge on any rises in spot price could lead to a natural lid on prices. The 5% drop last week on June 7 remains an important pivot and the days open near $48/bbl will remain key resistance on the chart. As long as price remains below this resistance point alongside the weekly opening range high of $46.69/bbl will favor a move down toward $40/bbl as we trade below the bullish rising channel support.
JoinTylerin hisDaily Closing Bell webinars at 3 pm ETto discuss tradeable market developments.
Crude Oil continues lower and breaks below price channel support
Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT
Oil – US Crude: Retail trader data shows 83.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 5.16 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 19 when Oil – US Crude traded near 5336.6; price has moved 15.8% lower since then. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Oct 07 when it traded near 4989.2. The number of traders net-long is 13.6% higher than yesterday and 23.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 12.8% lower than yesterday and 12.8% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil – US Crude prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil – US Crude-bearish contrarian trading bias. (Emphasis Mine)
—
Shorter-Term US OIL Technical Levels: Wednesday, June 14, 2017
For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.
Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Analyst Trading Instructor for DailyFX.com
To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE
Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
- Saudi won’t break with OPEC+ to head calls for more oil from Trump
- Brent rebound is likely as Biden-sanctions are creating painful tightness
- Brent testing the 200dma at USD 78.6/b with API indicating rising US oil inventories
- Crude oil comment: Deferred contracts still at very favorable levels as latest rally concentrated at front-end
- Crude oil comment: Big money and USD 80/b
-
Analys från DailyFX9 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter2 år agoUpptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter5 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Marknadsnyheter2 år agoDärför föredrar svenska spelare att spela via mobiltelefonen
-
Analys från DailyFX7 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter6 år agoTeknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke