Analys från DailyFX

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Faces Familiar Test On Break of 200-DMA

Published

8 år ago

13 mars, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

Crude Oil Technical Strategy: price below support turns focus on history of 200-DMA bounce
Crude Prices Eye Initial Support Following Break of 2017 Range

Dollar strength/ rising rates likely adding to worries alongside possible over-production

Crude Oil looks to be suffering from its own success. Specifically, the rising Oil price and technology gains in the sector have made shale production cheaper than ever allowing US firms to produce at lower price levels and remain profitable. However, the profitable level is believed to now be in the low $40 range, with some firms like BP aiming to be a $35/bbl firm meaning they can still operate profitably with Oil trading at $35/bbl.

The problem that many of these firms are facing can be seen in the Baker Hughes Rig Count, which pushed higher on Friday to 617. The US Rig count has been on a near straight incline since summer 2016 and shows firms eagerness to produce and squeeze out a profit as Oil price stability surfaced after multiple quarter-on-quarter price declines. However, the rising right count had aligned cleanly with the rising US stockpiles, which had recently reached levels not seen since the wildcatter days of the 1930s in the US when Oil producers were sprouting up like weeds to turn a fortune despite the recession. They took the price of a barrel of Oil down to $0.01 due to their overproduction causing many to leave the business and sell their mineral rights, and a similar fate (except the $0.01 per barrel) could re-emerge if the drilling and supply stockpiles continue to grow without a match in demand.

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CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Crude Oil has found itself in familiar territory with stretched momentum. The price of Crude Oil recently traded below the 200-DMA with RSI(5) registering a bearish extreme. If the price pops higher as it did in April, August, and November of last year, the Bulls may feel as though they’ve dodged a bullet. However, the Crude Oil market doesn’t have the fundamental support that other commodity sectors like base metals have, which could lead to an eventual breakdown toward the November low of $43.75/42.25.

While such a breakdown would hurt, price holding above the November low could indicate a longer-term consolidation lasting much of the year. Either an immediate move back above the 200-DMA or hold of the November low would keep a neutral market still anticipating an eventual move back toward the upper $50/bbl region.

A breakdown below the November low would complement the Bull’s fear of a longer-term topping pattern before a new attempt at $low-30 or 20/bbl, though I do not take that view until we break the November low.

Are commodity prices matching DailyFX forecasts so far in 2017? Find out here!

Chart created using TradingView

—

Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Analyst Trading Instructor for DailyFX.com

Key LevelsOver the Next 48-hrs of Trading as ofMonday, March 13, 2017

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Faces Familiar Test On Break of 200-DMA

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours of trading.

Contact and follow Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form