Analys från DailyFX
Crude Oil Price Forecast: Rising Prices Bring Higher Inventories
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Talking Points:
- Crude Oil Technical Strategy: stability near $50/bbl encouraging Bulls
- U.S. output rising as producers activate rigs on hopes OPEC will support Oil prices further
- Gold Prices Fall To 4-Month Lows, Oil Price Sitting At $50 On OPEC Doubts
Crude Oil has been riding a wave of positive fundamental developments over the last few weeks. Between the agreement to agree on a production cut by OPEC that Russia said they would honor and the falling U.S. Inventory data the Bulls had a lot to be happy about. On Thursday, we saw Crude Oil inventories rise for the first time in the U.S. in six weeks. Naturally, many are looking to U.S. Shale producers as activating their rigs as Oil has recently begun trading around $50/bbl, and some are speculating on a move in coming months toward ~$60/bbl.
Interested In a Quick Guide about OPEC, Click Here
In addition to rising stockpiles of Oil in the U.S., traders are still eager to understand more about the OPEC deal, which includes non-members such as Russia. The informal meeting is scheduled for October 29 at Vienna. Volatility is expected to be high around the meetings. Another component worth watching is the US Dollar, which has been on a moon-shot projector lately thanks in large part to the ‘Flash-Crash’ in Sterling. Any instability in the US Dollar after the ~3% rise in nearly two weeks could support the price of Oil as the two are inversely correlated.
Trading View D1 Crude Oil Price Chart: Very Hard To Be Credibly Bearish Above $50
The trendline is drawn from the February 11 low and early August low acts as a clear bias indicator on the price of Crude Oil. As the price remains above the 10-period moving average ($49.79/bbl) the momentum in the ST is bullish while the price above the trendline show’s the medium-term trend remains bullish.
The key resistance remains the June high of $51.64. If the price of Crude breaks above this key zone, we may see an aggressive buying spree by institutional investors who have had an aggressive bullish bias toward a breakout and would likely see a runaway move to the mid-$50s.
Only a hold of $51.64 followed by a break below the 10-DMA and a move toward the trendline support near the 144-DMA ($45.46) would turn us from Bullish to Neutral. Until then, we’ll keep our sights on new 2016 highs in the coming days.
Key Levels Over the Next 48-hrs of Trading As of Wednesday, October 13, 2016
T.Y.
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What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
- A muted price reaction. Market looks relaxed, but it is still on edge waiting for what Iran will do
- Very relaxed at USD 75/b. Risk barometer will likely fluctuate to higher levels with Brent into the 80ies or higher coming 2-3 weeks
- Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b to make cheating unprofitable for Kazakhstan
- All eyes on OPEC V8 and their July quota decision on Saturday
- Brent steady at $65 ahead of OPEC+ and Iran outcomes
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