Analys från DailyFX

Crude Oil Price Forecast: VIX Pop Brings Oil Down

Published

9 år ago

2 november, 2016

DailyFX

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Talking Points:

Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Ichimoku, Trendline Key Fibonacci Support Being Tested
CoT data shows an unwind could bring a strong drop
Crude Oil at 4-week lows shows doubt on OPEC deal

The market has clearly begun to price in the failure of an OPEC deal to cut production as evidenced by a ~11% drop in nine trading days. News hit the wires on Tuesday that Nigeria and Libya, who recently requested an exemption from the OPEC production cut was increasing supply, which put further doubt on the potential of a deal to be struck when OPEC formally meets in Vienna on November 30.

Interested In a Quick Guide about OPEC, Click Here

A key variable that will be watched going through the month of November is the amount of output brought to the market. October was fueled with multiple inventory draws of aggregate supply, which was encouraging when the OPEC deal seemed secure. Now, as doubts grow if a deal will be reached and a further increase in output will further pressure the price of Oil in fear of a renewed supply glut.

A valid concern is the relative number of bulls as seen in the recent CoT report that shows the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured is at 98% of the 52-week percentile, and US Dollar is at 100% of the 52-week percentile. This relative extreme doesn’t imply a top but can be indicative that there could be a significant unwind if disappointing data emerges such as a failed OPEC deal.

D1Crude Oil Price Chart: Next Support Zone from Rising Trendline Ichimoku

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT Courtesy of TradingView

Crude Oil has retraced 61.8% of its rally from mid-September that started at $42.72/bbl and went as high as $51.92/bbl in mid-October on DoE inventory data after the OPEC deal seemed a lock-in. A 61.8% retracement is still acceptable in an uptrend, and you can see above that we’re above the trendline drawn from the February low and connected off the July September low, but not by much. In addition to the Trendline, you’ll notice that the price is also sitting on the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart where we bounced aggressively from last time.

If the price breaks below this zone of support that is comprised of the Trendline drawn from February and Ichimoku cloud, we will likely see a much deeper correction. We mentioned the stretched relative positioning as explained in the CoT note, and a breakdown of these technical support points could provide a wave of selling pressure that drops price closer to $40/bbl.

We recently shared in a previous note that we would wait to turn Bullish until we observed a break above structural resistance of the presumed-corrective moves lower at $50 and $51. Until the break of resistance surfaces, we’ll be anticipating a move down toward $47.12/bbl. The burden of proof is now on the Bulls, and we’ll continue to doubt their arguments if the price of Oil to fails surpass $50-51/bbl before anticipating new 15-month highs anytime soon.

Key Levels Over the Next 48-hrs of Trading As of Tuesday, November 1, 2016

T.Y.

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form