Analys från DailyFX
Crude Oil Under Pressure Anew, SPX 500 Stalls Near September High
Talking Points:
- US Dollar Continues to Push Higher, Clearing October Top
- SP 500 Stalls After Failing to Close Above September High
- Crude Oil Back Under Pressure, Gold Drops for Fourth Day
Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continued to push upward, clearing October’s swing high to touch the strongest level in over four years. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 11216 exposes the 50% level at 11308. Alternatively, a turn below the 11102-43 area marked by the October 3 high and the 23.6% Fib clears the way for a test of trend line support at 10987.below the 23.6% Fib at 11102 opens the door for a challenge of trend line support at 10982.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.
SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices have returned to test resistance at 2022.10, the September swing high, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 2035.20. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% level at 2009.80 aims for the 14.6% Fib at 1994.20.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned lower as expected after putting in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Sellers now aim to challenge the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1154.82, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 76.4% level at 1131.11. Alternatively, a reversal back above the 1173.99-78.86 area (December 2013 low, 50% Fib) aims for the 38.2% expansion at 1193.16.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are back under pressure, with sellers testing the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 83.12. A break below that on a daily closing basis exposes the 23.6% level at 80.17. Alternatively, a reversal above falling channel floor support-turned-resistance at 86.25 targets the October 29 high at 87.91.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
- Very relaxed at USD 75/b. Risk barometer will likely fluctuate to higher levels with Brent into the 80ies or higher coming 2-3 weeks
- Brent needs to fall to USD 58/b to make cheating unprofitable for Kazakhstan
- All eyes on OPEC V8 and their July quota decision on Saturday
- Brent steady at $65 ahead of OPEC+ and Iran outcomes
- A shift to surplus will likely drive Brent towards the 60-line and the high 50ies
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