Analys från DailyFX

DAX: Choppy Daily Chart, Turning to Shorter-term Development

Published

9 år ago

2 september, 2016

DailyFX

What’s inside:

The DAX is trying to hold onto support
Short-term channel development taking shape
Today’s US jobs report could cause some market gyrations

On Wednesday, we were taking note of the DAX (FXCM: Ger30) turning higher from a key area of support, but had this to say about what posed risk to this view: “The biggest risk in the very near-term appears not to be sellers stepping in and bullying the market lower, but rather a lack of good movement as we work our way through the remainder of the dog days of summer.”

Well, fortunately, the dog days of summer are nearly over as the calendar has flipped to September. But, the price action in the DAX still looks ‘wish-washy’ as it attempts to forge out a low above 10500.

The overall trend is higher since bottoming post-Brexit, with the current sideways price action potentially acting as a period of consolidation before launching higher.

However, it will need to do so soon or else the lack of sponsorship from a steadfast level of support could be a tell that the recent malaise in price behavior could be a sign the DAX wants to roll over.

Taking a closer gander at the intra-day time-frames (2-hr in this case) we can see a well-defined channel taking shape since the third week of August.

The bullish take-away is the DAX rejecting the lower parallel and eventually turning up and clearing the recent peak at 10689 and the upper parallel. The bearish take-away from that development is that the market is working on a lower high scenario from the 8/15 peak, and could result in a breakdown below not only the lower end of the channel, but 10386 as well. A break below that threshold would mark a lower low, and more importantly act as a breach of the former resistance turned support the DAX has recently been using as a trough.

The alternative should the channel turn into more whip-saw trading, is the development of a triangle on the daily with a few more ‘ups and downs’.

This is the problem with this type of market right now, a few different things could be going on, and until we see a strong push in one direction or another we can only draw up scenarios and not concrete conclusions.

DAX Daily/2-hour

Today, at 12:30 GMT the US jobs report will be published and is a potential source of volatility. Expectations are for a print of 180k new jobs added in August, with a slight downtick in the unemployment rate from 4.9% to 4.8%. The market will also be watching for signs of wage inflation through the average hourly earnings figure, which was 2.6% YoY in July. Given the upcoming FOMC meeting later this month, data which is well above or below expectations could have an outsized impact on the short-term direction of global equity markets later today.

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX.

You can email him at probinson@fxcm.com with questions or comments.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form