Analys från DailyFX

DAX: Heading Towards DB-induced Lows, NFPs Later Today

Published

9 år ago

4 november, 2016

DailyFX

What’s inside:

The DAX breaks one level of support, on its way towards another
The next level of support is an important one, given the volatility surrounding it
US jobs report due out later today, presidential election on Tuesday

When we last looked at the DAX on Wednesday, we were taking note of the trend-line off the June lows and what a break of that sloping support would mean. We are now well below trend support, closing yesterday beneath our first noted level of price support at the 9/13 swing low of 10349.

The break below that pivot now turns it into short-term resistance, a recapture will be needed to gain any traction back to the upside. Looking further south we don’t have another significant level until the 9/30 Deutsche Bank-induced gap-and-trap low at 10190. Given how violently the gap lower was reversed on that day, this low in particular carries extra importance. On a first test it seems likely the market will try and muster a bounce.

The market is starting out on a weak note at the time of this writing, gapped lower towards the middle of the range between our new resistance at the 9/13 swing low and support at the key 9/30 low.

DAX: Daily

Created in Tradingview

Event alert: Later in today’s session the US monthly jobs report is due out. Analysts are looking for an NFP print of 175k, while the unemployment rate is expected to tick lower to 4.9% from 5%. The November FOMC meeting came and went this week with few surprises. There are two more NFP prints between now and the December meeting, and with over a 71% probability of a 25-bps hike priced in by the market via the Fed Fund futures (CME ‘FedWatch Tool’), it would likely require a very sizable miss to materially undermine those odds. Bottom line: It will take a sizable deviation in either direction, especially if a big miss, for markets to react violently. Either way, though, always expect the unexpected.

Also, keep in mind Tuesday is the U.S. presidential election, and with all the recent uncertainty added into the race markets may make some ‘funny moves’ next week.

Check out our Forecasts and Trading Guides

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

To receive Paul’s analysis directly via email, please sign up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form