Analys från DailyFX
Dollar Finds Support, S&P 500 Still Struggling with 1600 Mark
THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar has managed to stage a recovery from support at a multi-month range bottom. The SP 500 continues to struggle with resistance at the 1600 figure.
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices recovered after putting in a Hammer candlestick above support in the 10424-28 area marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and the March 22 close. Near-term resistance is at 10576, the March 11 high, with a break above that targeting the 38.2% Fib expansion at 10655. Alternatively, a drop below 10424 exposes the 38.2% expansion at 10428.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices completed a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern below resistance marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion (1595.90) and the psychologically significant 1600 figure, hinting at weakness ahead. Near-term support is at 1572.90, the14.6% expansion, with a drop beneath that targeting the 23.6% Fib retracement at 1537.30. Alternatively, a reversal above resistance aims for the 38.2% expansion at 1633.20.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are consolidating below resistance at 1487.65, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Near-term support is at 1455.94, the 50% level, with a break below that targeting the 38.2% Fib at 1424.23. Alternatively, a move above resistance aims for the 76.4% retracement at 1526.88.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices broke back above the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 91.82 to challenge resistance in the 94.66-79 area, marked by the April 10 and 29 swing highs. A push higher beyond that aims for a falling trend line set from late January, now at 96.78. The 91.82 level has been recast as near-term support, with a move back beneath that targeting the 38.2% Fib at 90.06.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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