Analys från DailyFX
Dollar Rally a Harbinger of Things to Come? Here are Trade Setups
- Largest 1 week EURUSD decline in over a year.
- Major NZDUSD triangle in the works?
- USDNOK setting up for major move
Subscribe to Jamie Saettele’s distribution list in order to receive FX trading strategy delivered to your inbox.
Jamie is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Monthly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-The EURUSD registered its largest one week decline (open to close) since the week that ended 7/6/2012. October is no stranger to important EURUSD market turns. My colleague Kristian Kerr has discussed the importance of ‘anniversary dates’. The all-time EURUSD low occurred on 10/26/2000 and the high last month was on the 25th. Other important Octobers include the 1998 high (rates were being set), 2008 (the low was on the 28th) and 2011 (the high was on the 27th).
-Generally speaking, lower tops from the 2008 high and lows in the same area form a possible descending triangle (typically bearish).
-The failed break above the February high is a bull trap. We’ve seen this before. In fact, such trade has become standard procedure in this market since 2009. The 2009 high occurred on November 4th.
-Near term supports for a bounce are the June high at 1.3415 and the August high at 1.3451. Watch specifically for a EURUSD print below the October low of 1.3472 WITHOUT a USDCHF print above its October high of .9177.
Trading Strategy: Order to short at 1.3565, stop 1.3610 (above the first day of the month high). Target half at 1.3300 (just above midpoint of year’s range). There is an uncovered close at 1.3296 (9/13).
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-GBPUSD weakness below 1.5893 would confirm a double top. The measured objective would be 1.5531 (width of range subtracted from 1.5893). 1.5531 is also the exact midpoint (50% retracement) of the rally from the July low. Be aware of the June high at 1.5750 as possible support. There is also an uncovered close at 1.5876 (9/13)
-1.5950/70 is viewed as near term resistance.
Trading Strategy: Daily Technicals have been short since 10/21. The first target was reached at 1.5960. The stop on the rest is trailed to 1.6060 (above first day of month high) with a 1.5540 limit.
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-AUDUSD followed through on last week’s key reversal.
–The market broke from a symmetrical triangle the week that ended 5/17/2013. The recent top is just pips from that close level (with an outside day reversal on 10/23) and right at channel resistance.
Trading Strategy: I screwed this one up by exiting a short on Thursday. A short bias is warranted against .9525 towards the October low. Exceeding that level could offer an entry opportunity in the .9570-.9600 region.
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
–NZDUSD followed through on last week’s outside week reversal. Bigger picture, a triangle may be in the works from the 2011 high. See the above chart in the AUDUSD to understand that the eventual break of a triangle doesn’t have to be in the direction of the previous trend (despite the contention of many…the same goes for the USDJPY by the way…the eventual break could go either way).
–Possible support is seen from former resistance between .8105 and .8162. There is an uncovered close at .8133 (9/13).
Trading Strategy: Daily Technicals is short from .8285 with a breakeven stop. Exceeding .8315 could offer an entry opportunity in the .8350-.8430 region.
Weekly
Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0
Automate trades with Mirror Trader
-USDNOK broke above a 3 year trendline in June. The topside of that line was tested as support in September (the test was in the form of a spike on ‘no-taper’).
-A trendline crosses the tops (exactly) of 7/5, 9/5, and 10/10. Watch for a break above that line and re-test of the top side of that line as support.
–A close up view of the outside week action reveals an impulsive advance from the 10/30 low and therefore an opportunity to buy a corrective decline.
Trading Strategy: Order to go long at 5.9200, stop 5.8600. If not triggered, then will look to position on a breakout and re-test of the mentioned trendline.
— Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Jamie e-mail jsaettele@dailyfx.com. Follow him on Twitter @JamieSaettele
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
- Brent crude marches on with accelerating strength coming from Mid-East time-spreads
- Crude oil comment: Pulling back after technical exhaustion and disappointing US inventory data. Low Cushing stocks lifting eyebrows
- The rally continues with good help from Russian crude exports at 16mths low
- Brent takes a pause, but a yet softer USD could propel it higher
- Brent crude falling back along with softer nat gas prices
-
Analys från DailyFX9 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter2 år agoUpptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter5 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Marknadsnyheter2 år agoDärför föredrar svenska spelare att spela via mobiltelefonen
-
Analys från DailyFX7 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter6 år agoTeknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke