Analys från DailyFX

Dollar Technical Analysis: Next Dollar Breakdown Could Travel

Published

9 år ago

16 januari, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

-Dollar Technical Strategy: overheated hawks and lack of Trump details keeps USD on heels

–US Dollar May Fall Further as Trump Inauguration Nears

-If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides

The “Trump Trade” continues to unwind keeping the USD soft, as it’s fair to now wonder if all the good news was priced into the USD, which is why DXY cannot extend into new 14 year highs at the start of the year. The rates market remains a crucial component of any credible DXY narrative, and we continue to see a pull-back despite sovereign yields on the front of the curve sitting below the Dot plot expectations. Traders appeared disappointed with the lack of details from Trump’s press conference ahead of the Inauguration Speech coming on Friday. The uninspiring Retail Sales on Friday likely adds to the lack of encouraging data to keep USD Bulls busy.

The lack of traditional economic data this week will continue to give the downside in USD further possibility as Yellen and other Fed speakers are unlikely to provide a spark for USD Bulls, which means USD remains vulnerable. The chart currently shows a series of lower highs against channel resistance and the H4 Ichimoku cloud in much the same way the XAU/USD traded ahead of the election before a significant sell-off that nearly put Gold into a bear-market after a stellar H1 2016.

The DXY appears to be taking a backseat to commodity currencies, like AUD, CAD, NZD, which all remain well positioned for further catch up vs. falling currencies like the USD and GBP. The recent move lower to round out the opening range of 2017 took DXY to the 38.2% retracement of the post-election range. While strong-trends often find support in such a zone, it’s difficult to put too much faith that the move down to the December 14 low of 100.73 was the end of the DXY correction. To believe USD is done slipping, we’d want to see a strong move with price comfortably above the Ichimoku cloud.

The point to watch on the chart is the low from last week as well as the December 14 low of 100.73. A break below this zone would take the price of DXY below the 38.2% retracement of the post-election breakout as well as the median line of the current corrective move lower that has opened 2017. If we fail to move above the channel resistance and Ichimoku Cloud, there could soon be a strong break below the December 14 low to the December low of 99.43 and likely toward the 61.8% retracement of the same range at 98.89. It would have been difficult to imagine questioning the uptrend a few weeks ago, but we find ourselves asking if the market went “too far, too fast,” and now the search for equilibrium means the USD has more room to the downside.

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H4 Chart Shows DXY Consistently Failing Near Resistance, Which Could Precede Breakdown

Chart created by Tyler Yell, CMT

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Shorter-Term DXY Technical Levels for Monday, January 16, 2017

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours of trading.

T.Y.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form