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Dollar Testing December Top, SPX 500 Flirting with 2013 High

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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Trying to Clear December Swing Top
  • SP 500 Fails to Breach Above 2013 Yearly High
  • Crude Oil Sees Resistance Below $95.00 Figures

Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSISPrices are testing above resistance at 10727, the December 20 high. A break above this barrier exposes 10761, the intersection of the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion and the top of a rising channel set from early November. Reversing below support at 10707, the 23.6% level, exposes the channel bottom at 10638.

Forex_Dollar_Testing_December_Top_SPX_500_Flirting_with_2013_High_body_Picture_5.png, Dollar Testing December Top, SPX 500 Flirting with 2013 High

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.

SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are testing resistance in the 1844.90-49.10 area, marked by the December 31 high and the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break higher exposes the 23.6% level at 1863.10. Near-term support is at 1819.60, the 14.6% Fib retracement.

Forex_Dollar_Testing_December_Top_SPX_500_Flirting_with_2013_High_body_Picture_6.png, Dollar Testing December Top, SPX 500 Flirting with 2013 High

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices are edging lower after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. Breaking below support at 1240.12, the January 3 high, exposes the 1212.03-17.75 area (marked by the December 2 low and the 23.6% Fib expansion). Near-term resistance is at 1261.28, the October 11 low.

Forex_Dollar_Testing_December_Top_SPX_500_Flirting_with_2013_High_body_Picture_7.png, Dollar Testing December Top, SPX 500 Flirting with 2013 High

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Prices pushed higher as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A push above resistance at 94.85, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, exposes the 50% level at 95.97. Reversing below support at 93.46, the 23.6% Fib, aims for the January 9 low at 91.21.

Forex_Dollar_Testing_December_Top_SPX_500_Flirting_with_2013_High_body_Picture_8.png, Dollar Testing December Top, SPX 500 Flirting with 2013 High

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

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What’s inside:

  • EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
  • Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
  • Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

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Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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