Analys från DailyFX

DXY Serves Up News Watcher’s Delight With Politics & Tier 1 Data

Published

8 år ago

24 april, 2017

DailyFX

Will The Dollar Continues Its 2017 Downtrend? Get A Free DFX Q2 Market ForecastHERE

Talking Points:

DXY Technical Strategy: Post-Election Provides New 2017 Lows, Wary Of Bounce
Risk is On After French Elections: What’s Next for Euro, Yen, and USD?
USD Serves Up News Watcher’s Delight With Politics Tier 1 Data

The last week of April could hit trader’s square between the eyes that are holding DXY exposure. This week brings the all-important Durable Goods (Thursday) as well as GDP (Friday) on the economic data front as well as congressional attention in the US on passing the budget, which tax reform developments.

Naturally, traders stay focused on what will spark USD strength going forward. Despite EUR shorts coming off aggressively after the first-round election and attention now geared toward the May 7 run-off, DXY may find strength yet. Will that strength last beyond 101 on DXY appears to be the main question. A key focus on whether the price can carry above resistance in a downtrend that we have seen for 2017 is what the Fed will do from here. A component that could see DXY strengthen is clarity on the Fed’s Balance Sheet Reduction efforts, which is expected to hit its stride in 2018.

Interested In Seeing How retail traders’ Are Exposed In Key Markets?Find out here!

Risks for USD price action are likely skewed lower with the upcoming data that could show US weakness. On Friday, we saw demand for upside protection in Eurodollars rising sharply across upcoming expiries like July 2017 and September 2017. Upside demand in Eurodollars means that market perceptions of tightening by the Federal Reserve are weakening, which often leads to USD weakness.

The technical picture continues to favor downside until proven wrong. The April 10 high of for DXY at 101.34 would be the clearest sign of a Bullish Reversal, but given the price from Monday’s low is over 2.5% away, it’s likely better to watch the Ichimoku Cloud as Resistance. Therefore, a break and close above 100.55 would open up the argument for a sustained DXY recovery to claw back some its 2017 losses.

We’ll continue to keep an eye on insight from the options market as well as Eurodollar futures in response to upcoming tier-1 news releases as well as political developments to gauge the probability of trend continuation lower or a possible reversal higher. Should the price continue below 100.55, I favor a move to the confluence of bearish targets at 97.95/66.

Join Tyler in his Daily Closing Bell webinars at 3 pm ET to discuss this market.

DXY Gaps To 2017 Lows After The First Round of the French Election on April 23

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

—

Shorter-Term DXY Technical Levels: Monday, April 24, 2017

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

DXY Serves Up News Watcher’s Delight With Politics amp; Tier 1 Data

Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Analyst Trading Instructor for DailyFX.com

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form