Analys från DailyFX

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: ¥120.00 as the Focal Point

Published

9 år ago

3 februari, 2017

DailyFX

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Talking Points:

EUR/JPY Technical Strategy: Longer-term bullishness intact, intermediate-term range-bound.
EUR/JPY has continued to find support around the 121-handle, respecting the long-term zone of support underneath current price action around the 120-level.
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In our last article, we looked at the near-term range that’s developed in EUR/JPY with an eye on a longer-term support zone around the 120-handle on the pair. And given recent price action, we weren’t the only ones watching that zone as buyers have continually come-in to seize on moves-lower, yet continuing to show support above this long-term zone, extending range-bound price action in the pair that’s been present since mid-December.

Also in that previous article we looked at what’s been a rather consistent element of resistance at 123.09 on the pair, which helped to produce another iteration of resistance last week. This is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the major move in EUR/JPY spanning from the 2008 high to the 2012 low; and over the past six weeks this has become a type of ‘danger zone’ for bulls as strength has continually waned as price action tests deeper into resistance. This has brought on a series of ‘lower-highs’ over the past six weeks that could further temper bullish optimism.

But given the fact that the post-Election trend remains active with price action remaining well-supported above the 38.2% retracement of the move, traders can continue to grade near-term price action as range-bound while longer-term price action continues to hold bullish-trend potential.

For bullish strategies, that same zone of potential support around the 120-handle could be attractive for top-side entries. Given the fact that we’ve previously seen a quick break of support, combined with the lower-highs that have begun printing; we can deduce that bulls are growing weary with a lack of top-side drivers over the past six weeks; and this isn’t necessarily ‘bearish’ as much as it’s simply ‘not currently bullish;. This could lead to a quick break of near-term support, at which point gauging buyer demand around that long-term zone around 120 could denote continuation potential of the ‘bigger picture’ bullish up-trend. And for such approaches, the zone of price action between ¥118.50-¥119.00 could be attractive for stop placement and risk management.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

9 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

9 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

9 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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