Analys från DailyFX

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Blast-Off to Fresh 2017 Highs

Published

8 år ago

28 juni, 2017

DailyFX

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Talking Points:

EUR/JPY Technical Strategy: Long-term bullish, intermediate-term: mixed, short-term: bullish.
EUR/JPY has posed an aggressive top-side breakout to run to fresh yearly highs.
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In our last article, we looked at a bullish setup in EUR/JPY after price action broke-above a bear flag formation that had built over the prior month. But even while that bear flag was showing a retracement of the ‘bigger picture’ bullish trend, buyers remained vigilant; not allowing prices to drop below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent major move.

4-Hour EUR/JPY with emphasis on yesterday’s Bullish Breakout

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Yesterday saw Mario Draghi offer comments regarding the ECB’s forward-looking outlook, and markets responded with an outsized gust of strength in the Euro; driving EUR/JPY up to a fresh yearly high of ¥127.86. Earlier this morning, reports began to circulate that ECB ‘sources’ indicated that Mr. Draghi’s speech yesterday was ‘misjudged’ to mean that the bank is getting closer to tightening policy when the intent was to be more balanced in nature. But regardless of the noise, the market reaction was telling as prices in EUR/JPY posed a quick dip after these comments began to circulate through the market, at which point buyers soundly pounced on the move to re-drive EUR/JPY right-back towards those prior highs.

The point where the bounce began is an area of interest, as this syncs with the April 2016 high in EUR/JPY. On the chart below, we’re looking at the April swing-high that helped to set intra-day support after this morning’s dip in EUR/JPY:

EUR/JPY Daily Chart with emphasis on April 2016 swing-high

Chart prepared by James Stanley

After this morning’s support test, buyers have quickly driven the pair back towards prior highs, and this highlights the potential for bullish continuation in the pair. The challenge at this point is one of entry, as prices remain rather elevated from nearby support levels after this recent run-higher, and a bit of resistance has begun to show on the hourly chart around the ¥127.86 swing-high.

On the chart below, we look at four different potential support levels above the prior swing-low of ¥124.71; and each of these could be usable for bullish re-entry. Key would be letting support actually show before triggering long. Alternatively, the possibility of bullish breakout entry logic is available, using this morning’s high of ¥127.86, with targets set towards resistance at ¥128.52.

EUR/JPY 30M Chart with Potential Support Levels Applied

Chart prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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