Analys från DailyFX

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Buyers Respond to Fibonacci Support

Published

7 år ago

9 augusti, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

– EUR/JPY Technical Strategy: Long-Term bullish, Short-Term mixed.

– EUR/JPY has finally put in a retracement after the run following French elections tallied +1,200 pips.

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Over the past four months, the Euro has been in the midst of a jaw-dropping run. As growth an inflation have begun to show a bit more consistently in Europe, investors have started to try to front-run what feels like an inevitable stimulus exit from the European Central Bank. With a key rate decision on the calendar for the first week of September, optimism remains high that the ECB will make that first move away from stimulus in the near-future, and this has kept the Euro driving-higher against most major currencies.

In mid-April, EUR/JPY gapped-higher after the first round of French elections resolved with a rather market-friendly outcome, and the pair hasn’t really looked back. There is still un-filled gap from that move, but in the time since, EUR/JPY has rallied by more than 1,200 pips. Pullbacks in the bullish move have been scant: We discussed one such retracement in June as a bull flag had just given way; and more recently we’ve seen prices move-down to test a key support level at 128.52. This is a key level, as this is the 38.2% retracement of the ‘Abenomics’ move in EUR/JPY, and this had helped to set support in the pair throughout mid-July before buyers were able to push-up to a fresh yearly high in EUR/JPY.

EUR/JPY Weekly: 38.2% Retracement of ‘Abenomics’ Move Helped to Set Today’s Low

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Over the past couple of days, we’ve started to see a retracement in the move as driven by a couple of factors. Risk aversion flared yesterday afternoon after comments from U.S. President, Donald Trump, spoke to the nuclear ambitions of North Korea. President Trump said that North Korea’s nuclear threats would be met with ‘fire fury, and frankly, power the likes of which the world has never seen’. This hastened risk-off moves in equities markets, and the Japanese Yen saw a run of strength that drove EUR/JPY below prior swing support.

At this stage, the pair remains bullish and supported; and this can open the door for top-side approaches. On the chart below, we’re looking at three support and resistance levels that can assist with trade planning around bullish continuation in EUR/JPY.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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