Analys från DailyFX

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Grasping at Highs

Published

8 år ago

25 maj, 2017

DailyFX

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Talking Points:

EUR/JPY Technical Strategy: Intermediate-term: bullish, short-term: bullish.
EUR/JPY put in an impressive bounce off of last week’s lows; but sellers have shown up ahead of the prior swing-high.
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In our last article, we looked at the retracement of the previously overbought bullish trend in EUR/JPY. After the pair had shown indications of ‘topping out’ in the week prior, sellers finally grasped some element of control in EUR/JPY as a move of strength in the Yen drove through multiple support levels. But as we warned, the longer-term formation here was still bullish in nature. And given the potential for continuation in themes of Euro-strength and Yen-weakness, the bid side of the pair could remain favored if support began to show on longer-term charts.

That support did show up, and buyers returned to perch EUR/JPY right back towards those previous highs.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

But as this morning’s price action neared that prior swing-high, something interesting happened: Bulls lost motivation, and sellers began to show-up with a bit more strength, pulling shorter-term price action lower.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

The fact that bulls stopped short of those prior highs by a single pip may be deductively telling us something: While the trend in EUR/JPY is decidedly bullish, prices may still be a bit overbought. While prior bullish trends in USD/JPY and GBP/JPY have put in deeper retracements, continued strength in the Euro has kept a larger sell-off or pullback at bay. Meaning that there are likely far more longer-term bullish positions still being held in EUR/JPY as the prior retracement was shallower than what was seen in other JPY-pairs.

Moving forward, traders would want to acknowledge the continued strength here while exuding some element of caution given the potential for the pair being at a turning point. If EUR/JPY finally breaks above that prior swing-high at 125.82, bullish continuation can be in order by looking to catch the next ‘higher-low’ in the pair. But – if we do not break above that prior high, meaning that this morning’s swing was a ‘lower-high’ by a single pip, the fact that bulls got shy as we approached that prior swing may be noteworthy. If prior swing support around 124.50 gets taken out after bulls were unable to over-take this prior high, the door could be re-opened to short-term bearish momentum strategies.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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