Analys från DailyFX

Euro Advances as Aussie, Kiwi Sink on Heightened Pre-FOMC Volatility

Published

11 år ago

20 augusti, 2013

DailyFX

INTRADAY PERFORMANCE UPDATE: 09:40 GMT

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): -0.03% (–0.67%prior 5-days)

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

Another day absent of noteworthy data from Europe or North America has traders honed in on QE3 speculation – whether or not the ‘Septaper’ will come to fruition. That would explain volatility in emerging markets the past several days, with the Indian Rupee notably falling to all-time record lows against the US Dollar (USDINR eclipsed 64.00).

The volatility found in the developing world the past few days has reached the major currencies covered by DailyFX Research, with the more growth-sensitive and risk currencies, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, falling back sharply across the board overnight.

For the Australian Dollar, it’s not just about emerging market weakness, though equity markets across Asia are pushing the ‘risk-off’ trade today (weaker AUDJPY). In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s August meeting Minutes suggested that the rate cut cycle might not be over as it originally appeared to be, with a rate cut neither imminent nor entirely dismissed – it all depends on incoming data.

EURUSD 5-min Chart: Tuesday, August 20 Intraday

Euro_Advances_as_Aussie_Kiwi_Sink_on_Heightened_Pre-FOMC_Volatility_body_Picture_1.png, Euro Advances as Aussie, Kiwi Sink on Heightened Pre-FOMC Volatility

Despite there being no news on the calendar today, speculation ahead of the July FOMC Minutes is already quite apparent given the uptick in volatility. Accordingly, we suspect the next several days will more closely resemble the price action seen overnight on Tuesday rather than what was seen to start the week. Indeed, FX markets are bracing for QE3 taper speculation.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR – UPCOMING NORTH AMERICAN SESSION

There are no events on the calendar for Tuesday, August 20.

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators. Want the forecasts to appear right on your charts? Download the DailyFX News App.

FX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – CHART OF THE DAY

Euro_Advances_as_Aussie_Kiwi_Sink_on_Heightened_Pre-FOMC_Volatility_body_x0000_i1028.png, Euro Advances as Aussie, Kiwi Sink on Heightened Pre-FOMC Volatility

GBPUSD (D) – The pair continues to impress since early-July but there are signs of near-term exhaustion developing. Gains have been harder to come by the past few days despite broader US Dollar uncertainty; and the British Pound has been less enthused by stronger than expected data. Now, the daily RSI and Slow Stochastics (5,3,3) are approaching overbought territory as the pair nears resistance. Mid-June swing highs, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly high low, and ascending channel resistance (July 9 and August 2 lows to July 23 high) all come in between $1.5720 and 1.5760 this week.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form