Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD

Published

8 år ago

15 maj, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

Market participants continue to look for the April 24 gap to fill
Very substantial support in the low-10800s stands in the way of a gap-fill
Looking higher there is plenty of work to be done, this week may be a consolidation week between levels

See what’s driving EURUSD this quarter, check out our Q2 forecast.

Ever since the first round of the French elections, market participants have been calling for a filling of the nearly 200-point gap. And while it is true, gaps have a tendency of filling, they don’t necessarily do it right away. Gaps can fill in a day, a week, a month; and in some instances, it can take much longer. Three weeks have already passed and the euro continues to defy the notion it must fill the gap. This is not to say it won’t do it sooner rather than later, but as long as support in the low 10800s continues to hold, no gap-fill can be expected. That might be stating the obvious, but bids continuing to come in near the same level is creating a clear line-in-the-sand for traders to work with.

There is something to this area in the low 10800s – it’s been in play on numerous occasions as both key support and resistance for nearly two years. And now, not only is there solid price support, but the 200-day MA (10831) is providing further underpinnings.

From a tactical standpoint: Traders can continue to lean on support, and should it give-way then we can look for a fill of the gap. Should 10821 break it will likely happen quite quickly. But waiting for the euro to sink into the gap first is a prudent approach for playing these scenarios, not predicting that it will do-so from levels which are well above a strong area of support.

Looking higher, EURUSD still has its work cut out for it. The ‘gap-and-trap’ last Monday following the Macron victory came at a trend-line which has two (now three) important connecting points – the 2016 high and the day Trump surprisingly won the U.S. presidential election. With the third inflection point coming on yet another important event, the line’s importance has grown even more-so. It might take some time for the euro to break through, if it does at all, but if enough sponsorship can be found to push it through the trend-line, 5-month old upper parallel, and ‘Macron-high’ – there is plenty of upside potential.

This week some more defending of the gap might be in order, and on a break higher we might see EURUSD fail to push through tough resistance, but looking at the intermediate-term picture a period of consolidation might be just what it needs to eventually put together a run. Or, the market will get its wish and support will break, resulting in a gap-fill.

EURUSD: Daily

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form