Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Readying Itself for a Move to the 2016 High
What’s inside:
- EURUSD bullish consolidation below confluence of resistance will do it some good
- Looking for an eventual breakout towards the 2016 high over 11600
- As long as support just beneath 11300 holds so does our constructive outlook
Where will EURUSD end the quarter? Check out the Q3 Forecast for our view.
On Friday, the U.S. jobs report jostled the euro, but once the dust settled there was little net change from prior to the release. We’ve been constructive on EURUSD for some time now, and the bias remains the same but with subdued expectations in the short-term. The single-currency rallied sharply the week before last, and on that it was pushed up against substantial price and trend-line resistance. The mid-11400s has been a point of selling interest at different times since February 2015, with the most recent period coming between April and June of last year. The trend-line in reference declines down from August 2015 over the 2016 high to current levels.
This week, after pulling back early, the euro pushed back into resistance once again but stalled in the minutes after the release of the jobs report. A little seesaw price action between resistance and the rising trend-line from April would do some good for setting up another long-trade towards the 2016 high set at over 11600. A consolidation in an uptrend just beneath resistance often times has a bullish outcome as the market reloads the coil for another shot higher.
Solid support arrives by way of not only the April trend-line but also highs carved out during June in the vicinity of 11285/11300. A pullback into this area may not develop, but should it though, we view this as an optimal spot for ‘would-be’ longs given the proximity of stop placement on such an entry (just below support) and eventual price objective (2016 high) with a breakout above resistance. Should we see no backing-and-filling in price action, an alternative entry could come on a daily close above 11445.
To undermine our constructive view, a break below beforementioned support just under 11300 would be required. It might not flip our bias to full-on bearish, but would certainly warrant caution. But until then, the euro looks set to ready itself for a move to levels not seen in over a year.
EURUSD: Daily
Live events are held daily by DailyFX analysts, for a full line-up see theWebinar Calendar.
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
- Brent takes a pause, but a yet softer USD could propel it higher
- Brent crude falling back along with softer nat gas prices
- Brent prices slip on USD surge despite tight inventory conditions
- Oil falling only marginally on weak China data as Iran oil exports starts to struggle
- Brent crude inches higher as ”Maximum pressure on Iran” could remove all talk of surplus in 2025
-
Analys från DailyFX9 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter2 år agoUpptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter5 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Marknadsnyheter2 år agoDärför föredrar svenska spelare att spela via mobiltelefonen
-
Analys från DailyFX7 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter6 år agoTeknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke