Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Top-side Projected One-week Range at Risk of Breaking

Published

7 år ago

6 juli, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD pulls back from confluence of resistance, but supported
One-week projected range suggests top-side at greater risk of breaking than down-side
Range-low is in nearly perfect alignment with the 200-day MA, price support zone

Which direction will EURUSD move in Q3? Check out our forecasts!

In the table below, you’ll find implied volatilities for major USD-pairs for the next one-day and one-week time-frames. Using these levels, we’ve calculated the range-low/high prices from the current spot price within one-standard deviation for specified periods. (Theoretically speaking, 68% of the time price should remain within the lower and upper-bounds.)

EURUSD turned lower from key area of resistance, but risk remains skewed to the top-side with the one-week projected range-high at higher risk than the range-low

Last week – EURUSD – after running sharply higher from a pullback ran into resistance by way of a trend-line extending lower from the August 2015 peak over the 2016 high. In this vicinity also lies several swing highs as far back as early 2015, with the most recent turning points coming during the first-half of 2016. The confluence of swing-highs and long-term trend-line make the mid-11400s an important inflection point, and a formidable area for buyers to push the single-currency through.

Looking at one-week implied volatility (currently at 7.3%), the projected one-standard deviation projected high clocks in at 11481, which is 36 pips above last week’s top. It suggests we may see a move beyond the beforementioned resistance and depending on momentum at the time it could turn out to be a meaningful breakout which could expose the 2016 high at 11615.

Looking lower, the projected one-week low is at 11251, which falls just below solid horizontal and trend-line support. Giving the benefit of the doubt to the strength of the trend and support the lower-bound looks less likely to be breached looking out over the next week. A decline to the 11300/285 area may presents an attractive spot for would-be longs to enter. If, however, we see a close below the trend-line and support then a move back towards 11100 (200-day MA at 11446) may be in the works. A daily closing bar below support would be our cue that the lower range threshold may be underpriced and selling could become aggressive.

The thinking on this end is that we will see the euro digest the recent swing higher and remain supported for the foreseeable future, with risk skewed towards seeing the projected range-high at more of a risk of breaking that the range-low.

Volatility heads up: Tomorrow at 12:30 GMT is the release of the U.S. jobs report. The consensus is estimate is for the economy to have added 177k jobs during June. For details, see the economic calendar.

For other currency volatility-related articles please visit the Binaries page.

EURUSD: Daily

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form