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Forex Strategy: GBP/USD Eyes 2014 Highs Near 1.6770 As Bears Retreat

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Talking Points

  • GBP/USD Technical Strategy: sidelines preferred
  • Break above key resistance levels puts 2014 highs in sight
  • Absence of key reversal pattern indicates bears in retreat

GBP/USD has staged an exceptional about-face in recent trading. After edging above the key 1.6600 handle the Pound bulls have taken charge of prices and look to be making a run on 1.6750. The staggering bounce for the pair has likely caught the bears off-guard given it was not preceded by a key reversal pattern. Sellers are likely sitting near the 2014 highs at the 1.6770 mark which may act to slow the pair’s advance.

GBP/USD: Bulls Take Charge

Forex-Strategy-GBPUSD-Eyes-2014-Highs-Near-1.6770-As-Bears-Retreat_body_Picture_3.png, Forex Strategy: GBP/USD Eyes 2014 Highs Near 1.6770 As Bears Retreat

Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Examining intraday price action using the four hour chart below; signs of hesitation from the bears were indicated by the emergence of several Doji formations near support at 1.6568/70. With prices powering through prior intraday resistance and a bearish signal missing, the pair may be set for continued gains.

GBP/USD: Dojis Signal Retreat By The Bears

Forex-Strategy-GBPUSD-Eyes-2014-Highs-Near-1.6770-As-Bears-Retreat_body_Picture_2.png, Forex Strategy: GBP/USD Eyes 2014 Highs Near 1.6770 As Bears Retreat

4 Hour Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

The ominous Dark Cloud Cover formation on the weekly at multi-year resistance also remains on the radar, and is threatening a more significant correction ahead for the Pound. A potential target is offered by the 23.6% Fib Retracement Level near 1.6350. However, a Piercing Line pattern has also recently emerged and although it awaits confirmation, it suggests the bulls haven’t given up on the pair just yet.

GBP/USD: Bulls Return As Piercing Line Forms on Weekly

Forex-Strategy-GBPUSD-Eyes-2014-Highs-Near-1.6770-As-Bears-Retreat_body_Picture_1.png, Forex Strategy: GBP/USD Eyes 2014 Highs Near 1.6770 As Bears Retreat

Weekly Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

By David de Ferranti, Market Analyst, FXCM

Follow David on Twitter: @Davidde

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

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What’s inside:

  • EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
  • Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
  • Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

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Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

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British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

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