Analys från DailyFX
Forex: US Dollar Retreats to Chart Support, Gold May Fall Further
Talking Points:
- US Dollar Falls for Third Day, Moves to Retest Trend Line Barrier
- SP 500 Trading Sideways in a Familiar Range Above 1850.00
- Gold at Risk of Deeper Losses, Crude Oil Still Trying to Advance
Can’t access to the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices Index edged lower for a third consecutive session to retest falling trend line resistance-turned-support set from late January (10528). A break below this barrier initially targets the March 19 low at 10495. Near-term resistance is at 10590, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a reversal above this barrier targeting the 38.2% level at 10649.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.
SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to consolidate below support-turned-resistance at the bottom of a rising channel set from mid-February (1889.80), a level reinforced by the March 7 high at 1888.60. Near-term support is 1853.00, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that targeting the 38.2% level at 1831.00.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices reversed downward as expected after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern. A break below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 1319.01 has exposed the 38.2% level at 1273.88, with a further move below that eyeing the 50% Fib at 1237.40. Alternatively, a reversal back above 1319.01 aims for trend line support-turned-resistance is now at 1344.85.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are attempting to build upward momentum after putting in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. A break above resistance at 99.57, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, exposes the 23.6% level at 100.83. Near-term support is at 97.53, the March 12 low.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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