Analys från DailyFX

FTSE 100 Bounce to Fizzle on Retest of Broken Support

Published

7 år ago

5 juli, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

FTSE 100 breaks multiple levels of support, most importantly a long-term slope
The current bounce is set to turn back lower either from current levels of just a little higher
Recent swing-low first targeted, looking likely a push towards Feb ’16 trend-line to take shape

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When we last looked at the FTSE 100 it was trading at the all-important 2013 top-side trend-line, which up until recent sessions held steady as support. During the process of breaking one key level of support the 6/15 low was taken out along with the June/’Brexit’ trend-line. This has the market poorly postured moving forward.

Since last week’s breakdown the footsie is trying to recover, but already running into trouble by way of previous support turned resistance. An underside retest (currently in progress) of the June/’Brexit’ trend-line, 6/15 low, several turning points since February, and a trend-line running down off the 6/20 swing-high may prove to be all the market can handle before turning lower. But if it doesn’t find opposition at current levels then we look for significant difficulty in overcoming the 2013 trend-line. It’s a top-side trend-line we’ve talked about at great lengths in recent months due to its influence. Sometimes slopes matter a little, and in some cases a lot – like this one. Trade up to 7450+ would be required for a recapture of the broken line.

Looking lower, the Friday low at 7302 is the first logical point of interest as support (it’s also a swing-high from April). If the market is to turn momentum back lower following a retest of broken support then it shouldn’t find too much difficulty in carving out a lower-low. Where buyers may show up is around the trend-line rising up from the February 2016 low (an important low) crossing under price action surrounding ‘Brexit’ (also an important inflection point). These particular connecting points make it an important trend-line. A strong break through there and the market may be signaling a broader shift lower.

For now, we’re running with a short-term downward bias as long as the market stays beneath resistance, and we’ll reassess on either a move above 7450 or once beforementioned support is met.

FTSE 100: Daily

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

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EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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