Analys från DailyFX

FTSE 100 Caught Between the Lines, BoE on Thursday

Published

8 år ago

13 mars, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

FTSE 100 ends decline off record highs
Clear support levels in focus, resistance mostly top-side trend-lines
FOMC on Wednesday, BoE Thursday

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Last week, the FTSE 100 started off edging lower from record highs, but then a rush of a selling came in on Thursday and pushed the index down below the first area of support in the 7330/00 vicinity, almost nearing lower parallel support before seeing a solid turnaround on the day. We made note of similar price action in the SP 500 (mini short-term capitulation-like bottom).

Moving on to the current situation, the Thursday turnaround day low of 7263 along with the lower parallel will be our first focus as support. A decline below those levels and the intermediate bullish structure of higher highs and higher lows will come into question despite support (June t-lines) coming in not far below.

Operating off the assumption the recent low holds, the footsie has resistance very nearby – mostly in the form of top-side trend-lines. The first one in the vicinity is a long-term trend-line connecting the 2013, 2015, and January peaks (edged slightly above to start the month). Arriving very quickly beyond the long-term line of resistance (roughly 7370) lies the record high of 7394/January top-side trend-line. It’s once the market can clear above (let’s call it 7400) with vigor that the market can find a little room to run before finding new top-side resistance by way of the February to current trend-line and a pair of top-side trend-lines extending higher from 2016. Given the lines slope higher with the market they are considered minor in degree, but nonetheless can be enough to put in meaningful swing highs. Watching how price action behaves upon arrival of these levels (if they are met) will help provide clues as to how the market will respond.

Heads up: On Wednesday, the FOMC meets and is expected to raise rates, so it will be about the Fed’s language as it most often times is. Any U.S. volatility could spill over into early-day trade on Thursday, which brings us to the BoE meeting that day. Expectations on Thursday are for no changes to monetary policy by the the U.K. central bank. ‘Brexit’ discussions at this time are the primary focus, with the U.K. government planning to trigger Article 50 by the end of March.

FTSE 100: Daily

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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