Analys från DailyFX

FTSE 100: Going with the Flow

Published

9 år ago

20 december, 2016

DailyFX

What’s inside:

FTSE 100 short-term trend showing healthy characteristics
Even with a small break of the short-term trend, solid confluence of support below
Top-side levels noted with further strength

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The FTSE 100 hasn’t made significant gains since we last discussed the index on Friday, but remains on course for higher prices. In the short-term, the FTSE continues to carve out higher lows and higher highs, most visible when looking at an intra-day time-frame (2-hr). The 12/2 trend-line is helping to keep things pointed higher. Even if the FTSE were to trade below the t-line, a break of other key levels below would be needed before concern regarding trend integrity would arise.

The FTSE traded up above the 11/10 spike high in recent sessions and is maintaining trade above there. The little consolidation period is poised to soon lead the FTSE in search of higher grounds. On a break above the recent peak at 7038, top-side levels we have on our radar arrive at back-to-back day highs printed at 7067 on 10/24-25, then it’s game on up to the 7104 record closing print and 7130 intra-day record high.

FTSE 100: 2-hr

Created with Tradingview

Dialing out to the daily chart: Even if the neat little uptrend on the 2-hr chart were to be compromised a bit, there lies strong support not far below by way of the trend-line running up from June. It held well during most of November and was recaptured earlier in the month after breaking only briefly. The trend-line should prove reliable as support on any weakness. It also couples with horizontal support extending back to August, making for solid confluence.

Daily

Created with Tradingview

All-in-all, global sentiment is strong, and to reiterate again, we expect that to continue through year-end. As long as the FTSE holds above support levels there is little reason to be bearish. It may not exhibit the power other global indices are demonstrating (looking at you DAX/Nikkei), but bids should remain firm in the UK. We choose not to fight it and go with the flow…

Join Paul live on Wednesday (12/20) for charts and trade set-ups. For a schedule of upcoming live events, see the Webinar Calendar.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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