Analys från DailyFX

FTSE 100: ’Hidden’ Resistance Ahead

Published

9 år ago

11 januari, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

The FTSE 100 rise continues to be extremely persistent
Potential resistance lies ahead at top-side trend-line
Waiting for bearish price action to indicate a set-back may be underway

2017 FY and Q1 Forecasts and Trading Ideas

Our recent outlook for a pullback to spawn in the face of a persistently rising market has yet to be realized, but at some point, soon, the FTSE 100 is likely to experience a set-back. The trading has been so one-sided that the only way to enter long, for going on a month now, is to buy the intra-day dips and run with it from there. For those who have been long, there has been little reason to be a seller. For those looking to short, there has been even less of a reason to fight the trend.

In prior posts, we expressed our ‘hope’ of seeing a pullback develop following the breakout to new highs back into those old highs (old resistance becomes new support), for possible long entries. That is off the table for now. Fighting persistent trends is a tough game to play, but as we said earlier, at some point, a decline will set in. We want to see the market react lower first, showing selling interest, before considering a decline is possibly under way. One level of potential resistance where we might see the market react is just ahead at the top-side trend-line running over the October 2015 and ’16 peaks; this level is right around 7300. It’s a ‘hidden’ level of resistance, if you will, given it arrives at record highs.

For the past month, not one session has closed below the prior day low; a close below the prior day low would be our queue that the current trend may be coming to an end for the time-being. For those that have been holding a long position from lower prices and looking to milk the trade further, this isn’t a bad way to implement a trailing stop – exit on a close below the prior day low. For aggressive-minded shorts, a close below the prior day low could mark the beginning of sellers starting to gain some control.

FTSE 100: Daily

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

9 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

9 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

9 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form