Analys från DailyFX

FTSE 100: Search for Direction Still On

Published

8 år ago

5 maj, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

FTSE 100 movement remains muted, struggling to push above resistance
Trend-line support not far below and rising
Later today U.S. jobs report, French election this weekend

See how our analysts see ‘Brexit’ impacting the FTSE 100 in our quarterly forecast.

The FTSE 100 remains stuck, for the week it hasn’t moved much. It’s moved about as much as the Nikkei 225 which hasn’t been open for business since Tuesday (on holiday until Monday). In the U.S., the SP 500 hasn’t done much either as it continues to consolidate below the March 1 high. Elsewhere in Europe, though, we’ve seen the DAX and CAC make a run higher, but overall global equity market volatility is quite subdued.

Looking at the footsie specifically, we’ve been focused on support and resistance arriving within a somewhat close proximity to one another, and growing closer due to the rising nature of the June trend-line. The ~7255/300 area has kept a tight lid on any advances since last week, and if the market can’t soon get into gear a break below the weekly low at 7197 will lead to test of trend-line support. It hasn’t yet established itself as a trend-line of significant strength yet due to the lack of inflection points, but nevertheless it is still viewed as support. The truly big level comes in around the 7100 mark; a breakdown below there would be a rather significant event and put the 100 index in a precarious position.

If the FTSE can clear on through noted resistance and maintain above 7300, we’ll be looking to the trend-line running down off March record high and resistance near 7400 by way of the 2013 top-side trend-line.

Keep an eye on the pound, and while we try to view markets in a bubble (choosing to use correlations for risk management purposes more-so than arriving to conclusions), if recent strength continues it should weigh on the FTSE 100’s performance. Conversely, a drop would be a boon for the index. But overall, as it stands now, sterling looks more likely to appreciate than decline.

Heads up: Later today the US jobs report is due out, and could cause a spat of volatility. For details on expected figures, please see the economic calendar. This weekend we have the French run-off election between Macron and Le Pen, gap-risk for Monday morning is certainly elevated.

FTSE 100: Daily

Created with TradingView

Paul conducts webinars every week from Tuesday-Friday. See the Webinar Calendar for details, and the full line-up of all upcoming live events.

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form