Analys från DailyFX

FTSE 100: Springing from Trend-line, Recent Range

Published

9 år ago

22 november, 2016

DailyFX

What’s inside:

The FTSE 100 holds trend-line support
Looking to break the recent malaise and trade towards overhead levels
If nothing else, support levels will keep short trades at bay

The FTSE 100 has been choppy over the past week, but if buyers at trend support can continue to keep today’s early push going, we may see the UK index gain some ground and play a little catch-up with other global indices.

This is what we had to say on Friday (bolded part new), “a push lower is looking increasingly likely. However, we must respect support until broken.While the market isn’t showing a great deal of interest in owning the 100, shorting support is an unfavorable proposition (as is buying resistance).” And that it has been so far, difficult to be a short. Being a buyer hasn’t been much more fun, either, but it hasn’t been costly.

It’s the simple stuff in technical analysis which is often times the most useful. Even if you didn’t get long at the trend-line (price action wasn’t the most encouraging), ‘unnecessary’ losses on shorts could have been avoided.

Back to the situation at hand…

If the FTSE can maintain a bid it has a little room to run before it will run aground. There is a pretty good zone of resistance in the ~6955/12 vicinity (runs back to the August swing high). Additionally, a trend-line running down off records highs will come into play somewhere in the same area as our horizontal levels.

Support comes in at recent daily lows spanning from 6709 down to the important 11/4 swing low at 6676. The June trend-line is of course one of our primary focuses, along with the low trajectory trend-line extending back to the 8/4 low.

We’ve previously discussed a ‘head-and-shoulders’ top potentially coming into play should the ’right shoulder’ fill out some more. But we will reserve any further observations until/if it becomes a relevant scenario.

For now, if today’s gains can hold, the FTSE may finally find some momentum following the recent malaise and move towards previously mentioned resistance levels. This would be good for short-term long positions, and if nothing else keep short-term shorts at bay. A reversal back lower wouldn’t be very encouraging for longs, but we must still respect support until broken.

FTSE 100: Daily

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form