Analys från DailyFX

FTSE 100 Tech Outlook: Trading Between Key Lines of Influence

Published

8 år ago

22 maj, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

FTSE 100 bounces hard from 2013 top-side trend-line, prior peaks
Resistance in form of top-side line over January/March highs
Stay above the longer-term trend-line, market remains supported; drop below things turn negative

Find out what’s driving global equity markets in our market forecasts.

On Thursday, when we last discussed the FTSE 100, this is what we had to say about the developing decline on the back of shaky U.S. politics: “Keeping it simple and consistent in approach, we’ll react to price action as per usual. On a drop into old resistance now turned potentially new support (~7400), how the market responds will be the tell.”

The ‘old resistance, new support’ we were referring to was the 2013 top-side trend-line we’ve discussed quite a bit recently, along with the peaks from March/April, which were also carved out along the same long-term trend-line. The footsie ended the day’s decline at 7389 before mounting a recovery into the close – which we are now seeing further follow-through take shape since. So far, the market’s response has been encouraging for longs.

The decline into support came from the January/March top-side trend-line which we had penciled in as resistance, but as we’ve said before it is only considered minor in nature given it’s running with the trend of the market. Nevertheless, the market reacted from it, so it’s certainly a line of influence to keep an eye on.

The two trend-lines combined are making for an interesting technical landscape which may need some time to resolve itself. Overall, the trend is higher, and again, ordering by level of influence the 2013 t-line is considered a far sturdier level of support than the overhead trend-line is considered a major source of resistance. This suggests the path of least resistance is still higher.

Further boxing in of price action and potentially bringing into play the trend-line rising up from last month’s low could make for an explosive situation. The bottom-line, though, is this – stay above noted points of support, with the 2013-line front-and-center, then the market remains constructively postured. Drop through and we can expect selling to intensify.

FTSE 100: Daily

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form