Analys från DailyFX

FTSE 100 Technical Outlook: Top and Bottom-side Levels in Focus

Published

8 år ago

9 maj, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

FTSE 100 showed limited response to French election
Attempting to break above resistance zone, top-side levels quickly come into focus
Support on a failure from resistance arrives at last week’s low, June trend-line

See what our analysts have to say about the FTSE and the expected longer-term impact from ‘Brexit’.

The FTSE 100 showed a limited response to the outcome of the French elections, which wasn’t surprising given the lack of strong price movement from the most directly impacted markets, the CAC and to a lesser degree the DAX.

Yesterday, the footsie popped its head above the range of resistance we’ve been keeping tabs on in the vicinity of 7255/300, eventually settling right around 7300. It’s been a tough spot for the market to overcome just as it was a good area of support during March and April. So far, this morning we’re seeing the FTSE make another attempt to push above the 7300 mark.

If it can sustain above 7300, the trend-line off the March high will quickly come into focus; this line lies just below an even more important area of resistance – the 2013 top-side trend-line (~7400), which has acted as a ceiling on several occasions since January.

Turning our focus lower, should attempts to break above noted resistance fail and result into a dive lower, we’ll be keeping a close eye on how price action reacts at the rising trend-line off the June low. Last week’s low at 7197 also falls in the same vicinity of the trend-line, so a confluence of support may bolster a bid upon trading down there.

The feeling on this end hasn’t changed – the FTSE’s lack of trend and levels in close proximity on the both the top and bottom-side leave us on the sidelines until further clarity presents itself.

Heads up: We have ‘Super Thursday’ this week; the BoE is set to release its decision on interest rates (no expected change), Asset Purchase Target (no expected change), and the release of the quarterly inflation report. Despite it being ‘Super Thursday’, one-week implied volatility for GBPUSD at a level of 7.18% indicates a lack of expected price movement following the central bank meeting. Given that the FX rates markets tend to be more reactive to these types of events, we don’t expect the FTSE to react strongly. But as always, expect the unexpected. Always.

FTSE 100: Daily

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form