Analys från DailyFX

FTSE 100 Trading Heavy at Support

Published

9 år ago

18 november, 2016

DailyFX

What’s inside:

The FTSE 100 trading at trend-line support
Looking like it wants to break, but need to see support give-way before becoming sellers
If support holds, more time could allow for an HS formation to develop

Since our last post on Wednesday, the FTSE 100 hasn’t done a whole lot to take note of. It continues to hold trend-line support rising up from the June lows. This is the first significant line of support we have penciled in. A decline below won’t be an all clear for shorts just yet, though. There is the 11/4 swing low at 6676 and trend-line running back to 8/4 (both in the same vicinity). As discussed, the other day, with a little more time a more symmetrical looking ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern could evolve, with the ’left shoulder’ and ’head’ already in place. We’re just waiting for the ’right shoulder’ to develop a bit more, and of course we would then need a break of the ’neckline’ (8/4 trend-line) for pattern confirmation. More on this later should it become relevant…

The response off trend support has thus far been rather tepid, but if buyers can be found the FTSE could find itself back up against the 6955/18 zone and trend-line running lower off the record highs. That would certainly pique our interest as sellers.

Given how heavily the FTSE is trading on trend support and how severely it is underperforming other European indices, Asia, and the U.S., a push lower is looking increasingly likely. However, we must respect support until broken. While the market isn’t showing a great deal of interest in owning the 100, shorting support is an unfavorable proposition (as is buying resistance). Would-be shorts will likely be best served waiting for support to give-way first. For those looking to take on a long or already own contracts, the ’line-in-the-sand’ has been defined.

FTSE 100: Daily

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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