Analys från DailyFX
FTSE 100 Treading Water as Support and Time on Collision Course
What’s inside:
- FTSE 100 thoroughly testing support
- June/’Brexit’ trend-line could soon be in confluence
- An interesting point in time is nearly upon us
What’s driving European equity markets? Find out in our market forecasts.
Since last discussing the FTSE 100 on Friday, not much has changed. The index continues to try and gain its footing on the area surrounding 7400. An area of support we’ve discussed at length in previous posts. But to reiterate – the zone surrounding this whole-figure is made up of a trend-line dating back to the 2013 peak crossing over the 2015 high and became influential again back in January where it acted as resistance until May. The subsequent peaks from earlier in the year around this long-term trend-line have also become points of interest as support.
The second half of the month we’ve seen the footsie spend a good amount of time testing the all-important area around 7400. Last week, the remaining two days of the week we saw mini reversals develop at support, with yesterday the market trying to get a lift, but then putting in a mini reversal back lower. What does this all mean? The lack of aggressive buying at a such a big area of support isn’t encouraging and the longer the UK index sits here without popping the more likely support will break.
The June/’Brexit’ trend-line is rising up and will soon be in confluence with the 6/15-day low. The meeting of big support with this key trend-line makes the following days an interesting point in time. A strong hold and turn higher could see the FTSE finally gather the energy needed to forge on back towards record highs. But a clean daily close below noted support and things could turn sour quickly. Indeed, an important juncture is nearly upon us.
FTSE 100: Daily
Paul conducts webinars every week from Tuesday-Friday. See the Webinar Calendar for details, and the full line-up of all upcoming live events.
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
- Crude oil comment: US inventories remain well below averages despite yesterday’s build
- China is turning the corner and oil sentiment will likely turn with it
- Crude oil comment: Europe’s largest oil field halted – driving prices higher
- Crude oil comment: Mixed U.S. data skews bearish – prices respond accordingly
- Crude oil comment: Fundamentals back in focus, with OPEC+ strategy crucial for price direction
-
Analys från DailyFX9 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter2 år agoUpptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter4 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Marknadsnyheter1 år agoDärför föredrar svenska spelare att spela via mobiltelefonen
-
Analys från DailyFX7 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter6 år agoTeknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke