Analys från DailyFX
GBP/USD Consolidates on UK GDP Miss
Talking Points:
- GBP/USD Consolidates on UK GDP Miss
- Daily Resistance Found at 1.3048; Support 1.2888
- IG Client Sentiment Reads -1.43; 59% Net-Short
The GBP/USD continues to consolidate off of its yearly highs, as UK GDP figures were reported under expectations this morning. UK GDP (YoY) (1Q P) was expected in at 2.1% but released at an actual 2.0%. Technically, this morning’s trading has pushed the GBP/USD back below its 10 day EMA (exponential moving average) at 1.2963. However despite this decline, prices still remain inside of last Thursday’s daily candle.
In the event prices continue to decline, traders should first look for the GBP/USD to close below the previously mentioned 10 day EMA. A move of this nature should also be followed by a breakout below last Thursdays low at 1.2888. In this bearish scenario, traders may then look for the GBP/USD to test the standing monthly low at 1.2830. If prices retrace higher however, traders should watch for the GBP/USD to close above the 10 day EMA and then challenge yearly highs above 1.3048. A breakout above this point would suggest a continuation of the GBP/USD’s ongoing long term uptrend.
GBP/USD Daily Chart Averages
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide.
Sentiment totals for the GBP/USD remain net negative, with IG Client Sentiment reading at -1.43. This suggests that 59% of traders are currently short the pair. When read as a contrarian indicator, this negative value suggests a bullish bias for the currency pair. If prices breakout lower below 1.2888, traders should watch for sentiment figures to shift back towards a more neutral value and potentially flip positive. Alternatively if the GBP/USD’s bullish trend continues, traders should look for sentiment to move towards new negative extremes of -2.0 or more.
— Written by Walker, Analyst for DailyFX.com
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Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Analys från DailyFX
Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Analys från DailyFX
British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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