Analys från DailyFX

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: A Breakout-Induced Range

Published

8 år ago

26 april, 2017

DailyFX

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Talking Points:

GBP/USD Technical Strategy: Intermediate-term bullish, short-term range-bound.
Cable has yet to extend the rally from last week’s bullish breakout; but buyers are continuing to show some element of support at prior resistance, so this wouldn’t be a ‘direct fade’ setup, either.
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In our last article, we looked at the top-side breakout in GBP/USD after PM, Theresa May announced early general elections in the U.K., set to take place on June the 8th of this year. This was a surprise announcement that few were expecting, and within short-order of Prime Minister May making this statement, the British Pound had rallied by almost 400 pips against the U.S. Dollar. But as we warned in our last article, traders would likely want to avoid chasing the move-higher until more information presented itself.

Since then, we have seen some additional factors that would denote the potential for bullish continuation, primarily taken from the fact that ‘higher-low’ support has continued to show around that prior zone of resistance around 1.2775. But perhaps more disconcerting for bulls is the fact that price action has continued to respond around the 1.2850 level; thereby producing a range formation after last week’s burst-higher.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Given that we have a shorter-term range showing up after a breakout, traders looking to add long exposure in GBP/USD can look to trade the range with a trend-side bias. As in, look to buy at or around support in the 1.2775 vicinity and, if price moves back-up, look to scale-out of the position as prices move closer to resistance. This can be accompanied by a break-even stop, and perhaps even leaving the final ‘scale’ of the lot open in the effort of seeking another top-side breakout with a limited-risk approach. Traders taking a bullish stance with the prospect of top-side extension would likely want to investigate stops below the 1.2750 psychological level. And if that top-side breakout doesn’t occur, then the break-even stop is protecting the position from a deeper move-lower.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

For bearish exposure – traders will likely want to wait for a definitive break back-below 1.2750 before plotting such strategies. If this takes place, 1.2706 becomes an ideal area to look for secondary support, after which ‘lower-high’ resistance could be looked for between 1.2750-1.2775.

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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