Analys från DailyFX

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Cable Congestion, Rally to Resistance

Published

9 år ago

23 februari, 2017

DailyFX

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Talking Points:

GBP/USD Technical Strategy: Intermediate-term – congested; shorter-term bullish.
Cable has just run up to a new two-week high, but bulls may want to proceed with caution as this zone had previously offered resistance in the pair.
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In our last article, we looked at GBP/USD as price action had been rather direction-less of recent. As we noted, this appeared to be playing in the longer-term bout of congestions that’s taken place near multi-year lows after the tumultuous second half of 2016. This, of course, spans the ‘Brexit referendum,’ the ensuing dovish campaign from the Bank of England, and then the ‘flash crash’ in early October. But ever since those flash crash lows have come-in, GBP/USD has sputtered anytime a legitimate test of resistance has come into-play; leading to, in essence, four months of congestion.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Within this congestion has been numerous attempts for prices to trend-higher; starting with the Bank of England’s Super Thursday in early November. When the BoE shifted inflation expectations-higher, price action in the British Pound attempted to break-out higher, but resistance came in at 1.2775, which is very near a prior level of swing-support. Since then, price action has been unable to set any new high’s or lows, leading into what has been, in essence, four months of congestion in Cable price action.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

On a more near-term basis, we’ve seen price action in Cable rally up to a level of resistance that should further temper bullish excitement in the pair. The level of 1.2552 is the 50% retracement of the major move spanning from the September 22nd high down to the low on January 16th (excluding the ‘flash crash’ low).

Chart prepared by James Stanley

For those that do want to push an aggressively-bullish stance, a sustained break above the February 9th high (1.2582, the same ‘activator’ level looked at in our last article) could open the door for such an approach. At the very least, this would show that bulls may be gaining some level of conviction on a longer-term basis that could, potentially, continue for a bit.

For those that want to take a more conservative stance on a market that’s been rather choppy of late, breaking above that longer-term level of resistance at 1.2775 could make such a prospect more probabilistic, as this could finally signal some element of resolution with this choppy price action that Cable has been exhibiting.

— Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

9 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

9 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

9 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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