Analys från DailyFX

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Fresh Highs After ’Brexit Ruling’

Published

8 år ago

25 januari, 2017

DailyFX

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Talking Points:

GBP/USD Technical Strategy: Intermediate-term mixed; Near-term bullish.
After last week’s ‘Brexit speech’ from Theresa May followed by this week’s U.K. Supreme Court ruling on Brexit proceedings, Cable has run-up to fresh six-week highs.
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In our last article, we looked at the prospect of a bullish trend developing in Cable after Theresa May’s ‘Brexit Speech’ had driven the pair to fresh near-term highs. This, combined with the fact that bears were unable to break below 1.2000 from the previous down-side run opened the door to a possible bullish-continuation move in the British Pound. But after such an aggressive down-side move, it was difficult to decipher whether that bullish move was more of a short-squeeze or the legimate start of a new trend, so we focused-in on the support zone around 1.2250 to watch for a ‘higher-low’ to develop in the effort of trading top-side continuation.

Since then, that zone of support helped to form a near-term bottom in GBP/USD just ahead of this week’s U.K. Supreme Court ruling on Brexit, mandating that Theresa May is going to need parliamentary approval before triggering Article 50. After this news circulated through markets, GBP/USD ran up to set another fresh near-term high, signaling the more-likely prospect of bullish continuation.

At this stage Cable is trading at six-week highs after an aggressive run over the past week-and-a-half, and this can open the door to bullish trend-continuation strategies in the pair. On the chart below, we’re looking at the 4-hour setup in Cable to highlight this recent bullish structure.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

On the chart below, we drill-down to the hourly setup to look at relevant levels. Underneath current price action there are three support levels identified. ‘S1’ is near-term support in an approximate 50-pip zone from the Fibonacci level at 1.2543 down to the prior swing at 1.2490. ‘S2’ is set to an area of prior support that had also functioned as the ‘swing-high’ after the initial ramp after the Theresa May ‘Brexit Speech’. And just below that we have the same zone we had looked at for confirmation of bullish continuation around the psychological level around 1.2250.

On the top-side of Cable, bulls will likely want to take heed of the potential resistance from 1.2716-1.2775. This is an imposing zone of resistance as bulls were rebuked from breaking-above on three separate occasions in mid-December. This is an opportune area for bulls to tighten up risk, or to scale out of positions while moving stops to break-even.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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