Analys från DailyFX

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Showing Signs of Bullish Persistence

Published

9 år ago

8 februari, 2017

DailyFX

Talking Points:

GBP/USD Technical Strategy: Holding confluence of support keeps market’s attention
SSI is currently 1.3165 on GBP/USD as 56% of retail traders are currently long. To stay up with the Speculative Sentiment Index, please click here.
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Cable is holding above the 100-DMA and shows multiple signs of life for the Bulls as the USD continues its descent toward new 2017 lows. The stability above the Ichimoku Cloud provides credibility to those who bought GBP/USD after PM Theresa May spelled out the U.K.’s plan for Brexit last month. Naturally, the question has turned to the sustainability of the nearly ~5% move off the 2017 low.

The market still anticipates the triggering of article 50 by the end of March. Despite Tuesday’s move to a two-week low at 1.23460 (50% of the Mid-January to early February move,) there is still hope for further upside based on the continual re-coupling of the extreme bearish sentiment, which is currently at 25% on the DSI as of Tuesday’s close. Given that the USD currently sits at 70% on Jake Bernstein’s futures sentiment index for Dollar futures and Sterling futures, there is still upside potential based on a reversion to the mean of extreme sentiment.

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While Sterling still has its fundamental challenges, as does the US, but we can utilize recent pivots on the price charts to help us build a bias going forward. Tuesday’s two-week low and 50% retracement move aligns with the Daily Ichimoku Cloud that looks to be rebounding as RSI(5) on the daily chart moves higher off a rising Trendline.

There remains clear resistance at 1.27/28 as you can see on the chart with the December closing high and early February high of 1.2706. In addition to the rising RSI(5), and apparent support of the Ichimoku cloud and 50% Fibonacci retracement, it’s worth keeping an eye on Andrew’s Pitchfork that is drawn on the chart below.

The AP is drawn off the closing low where there was a momentum spike alongside the price pivots in December and January. The important takeaway of the AP is the rising slope of the median line, which turns our focus toward resistance, which sits near 1.28, and a further break higher could turn focus toward 1.30. Currently, SSI is standing in the way of this extension higher from a contrarian indicator perspective. A move to negative SSI would favor a move higher along with what is seen on the daily chart.

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D1 GBPUSD/ Chart: Holding Above Ichimoku Cloud And Moving Toward Top Half of AP

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

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Key Short-Term Levels as of Tuesday, February 8, 2017

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

T.Y.

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

9 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

9 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

9 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form