Analys från DailyFX
Gold and SPX 500 Digesting Losses, Oil Bounces from Trend Support
Talking Points:
- US Dollar Still Waiting for Direction Guidance in a Choppy Range
- SP 500 Pause to Digest Losses After Three Days on the Downside
- Crude Oil Rebounds, Gold Prices Oscillating in Familiar Territory
Can’t access the Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index? Try the USD basket on Mirror Trader. **
US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to mark time in a choppy range after opening June at a seven-week high. Near-term support is at 11887, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 11839. Alternatively, a move above the 12024-43 area (June 1 and June 5 highs) opens the door for a challenge of double top resistance at 12149.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope
** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.
SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices paused to digest losses after three consecutive days of downward momentum. Sellers are now challenging the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2077.20, with a break below that exposing the 76.4% level at 2063.00. Alternatively, a move back above the 50% Fib at 2088.60 targets the 38.2% retracement at 2100.00.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices are digesting losses after dropping to a three-month low. A break below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1169.31 exposes the 50% level at 1149.85. Alternatively, a move above support-turned-resistance at 1178.09, the March 31 low, targets the 23.6% Fib at 1193.38.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices continue to oscillate above support at a rising trend line guiding the move higher since mid-January. A break below this barrier (now at 62.64) exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement 60.27. Alternatively, a reversal above downward-sloping resistance at 65.13 targets the May 6 high at 69.60, followed by the 38.2% Fib expansion at 70.25.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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