Analys från DailyFX
Gold Mounts Sharp Recovery, SPX 500 Drops Most in 7 Weeks
Talking Points:
- US Dollar Retreats into Digestion Mode After Hitting 5-Year High
- SP 500 Breaks Monthly Uptrend, Drops Most Since Mid-October
- Gold Mounts Sharp Recovery, Crude Oil Snaps 5-Day Loss Streak
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US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices stumbled after spiking to a new five-year high, finishing the day with a modest loss. Near-term support is at 11350, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the November 27 low at 11284. Alternatively, a turn above the 23.6% Fib at 11391 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% expansion at 11457.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
** The Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index and the Mirror Trader USD basket are not the same product.
SP 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices turned sharply lower, producing the largest daily drawdown since mid-October. Sellers now aim to challenge the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2038.40, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 2015.20-22.10 area marked by the 23.6% level and the September 19 high. Alternatively, a turn above channel bottom support-turned-resistance at 2064.70 targets the November 23 high at 2075.90.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices vaulted aggressively higher after tapping a three-week low. Near-term resistance is in the 1212.23-19.41 area marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and a falling trend line set from early July. A break above this barrier exposes the 50% level at 1237.59. Alternatively, a reversal below support at 1180.84, the 23.6% Fib, aims for the 14.6% retracement at 1161.49.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices recoiled upward after hitting the lowest levels since 2009, snapping a five-day losing streak. Near-term resistance is at 75.31, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level at 77.72. Alternatively, a reversal below the 23.6% Fib at 72.33 aims for the 14.6% retracement at 70.50.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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