Analys från DailyFX

Gold Price Analysis: Churning Near Support

Published

9 år ago

22 december, 2015

DailyFX

– Gold technical strategy: Flat, previous short cleared all targets.

– Gold is continuing to catch a bid below $1,087.05; and traders looking to get short should wait for resistance to show.

– Gold has been really volatile lately, so if you are or are planning to trade in this market, your risk management needs to be on-point. To get it there, Traits of Successful Traders can help.

In our last article, we looked at the continued down-trend in Gold as we were at the point that support had been continually unable to drive prices higher. And while Gold was in the midst of one of its strongest runs in years, there was simply a dearth of nearby resistance points to use as a basis for new short positions.

But if there were ever a reason for USD-strength, last week should’ve been the deliverer of those reasons, as the Federal Reserve’s rate hike combined with their expectation for four full hikes in 2016 was enough reason to spark USD-strength across the board. And as has become normal over the past few months, Gold prices fell. But – something funny happened near the lows, and this is what should provide caution to traders moving forward. On the day after FOMC as we approached that previous low that was set right after ECB at $1,046.23, we saw buyers jump in early to set a new, higher-low at $1.047.55. Higher-lows can be an early sign of a top-side reversal, as bears are unable to drive prices to new low and bulls show their eager anticipation by posting buy orders before new lows come into the market. Like any other ‘early’ statistical measure, this could be a noisy signal; but given a lack of discernable drivers over the next week, this could further make the short-side of gold look a little less attractive, at least for now.

However, for traders taking a longer-term approach, sell setups may be around-the-corner. The $1,087.05 level that we’ve been discussing in these tech pieces has continued to show as a critical level in the Gold market. This is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the ‘big picture’ move, taking the 1999 low to the 2011 high. Since coming back into Gold prices in July, this level has offered numerous setups on both sides of the market, and until price action leaves it behind it will likely function as a pertinent level.

Should prices rise to $1,087.05, traders can look for intra-day resistance as highlighted by top-side wicks on the 4-hour chart. With this setup, traders could cast targets towards $1,080, $1,071.28, $1,063, and $1,050 to accommodate attractive risk-reward ratios.

If $1,087.05 is traded though, a secondary zone of long-term resistance may be seen in the $1,100-range. This level had provided a prior swing-low support before the down-side Gold trend really heated up, and this also carries a projected trend-line going into the next few weeks. The same down-side targets would apply.

Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To receive James Stanley’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

8 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.

Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

8 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form