Analys från DailyFX

Gold Prices Are Testing Support: Is Breakdown Imminent?

Published

8 år ago

15 februari, 2017

DailyFX

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Gold Technical Strategy: Intermediate-term mixed; Near-term gaining bearish momentum, testing support.
After setting a new swing-high just-under $1,245 last week, Gold prices have begun to show ‘lower-lows’ and ‘lower-highs’.
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In our last article, we looked at the continued run-higher in Gold prices that started around the Federal Reserve’s December rate hike and had run all the way-in to the beginning of February. And while this was a significant move that brought in more than $100 of gains to Gold prices over a month-and-a-half, this was still relatively minor in consideration of the previous bearish trend that began on the night of the elections and drove Gold prices lower by more than $210.

But since the beginning of February, strength in the U.S. Dollar has begun to show again, highlighted with yesterday’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, in which she commented that it’d be better to raise rates sooner rather than later. This helped to expedite some additional strength into the Greenback, and Gold prices have been tipping deeper into support as this strength has started to show more prominently.

At this stage, Gold prices are in an interesting zone of support from $1,215.17-$1,219.02, with $1,219.02 functioning as the 38.2% retracement of July-December bearish move. Also of interest for this zone is the two separate iterations of resistance that it offered to the top-side move in January, first on January 17th and then again on January 22/23. The 50% retracement of that same July-December move is at $1,248.83, and given the fact that bulls were unable to overtake this level, the long-term setup in Gold prices could still be classified as bearish, with January being but a retracement of the bearish trend.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

For timing the bearish trend: Traders will likely want to await a break of this support zone to indicate that the bigger-picture bearish move may be on the way back. Given that this current zone of support functioned as resistance on two separate occasions, this could be a novel area for bulls to re-load; and while many currency pairs are driving down to fresh lows to account for this recent rush of Dollar strength, Gold prices are still catching support, and, at the very least this is deductively ‘not bearish’.

So, while a bigger-picture breakdown isn’t yet imminent in Gold prices, the prospect for continuation is there, particularly if the theme of U.S. Dollar strength continues in the coming weeks which will likely usher in a break of this support zone, at which point traders can look to sell ‘lower-high’ resistance in the vicinity of prior support.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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