Analys från DailyFX

Gold Prices Bounce Off of Higher-Low; Is the Bull in Retreat?

Published

8 år ago

1 mars, 2017

DailyFX

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Gold Technical Strategy: Intermediate-term: Bullish move still alive after price action bounced off a ‘higher-low’ level of support.
With the rapid increase in odds for a rate hike in March, the bullish move in Gold prices may be fleeting. But if the Fed backs off, or offers dovish commentary to markets ahead of or around March, Gold will likely get another leg-higher.
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In our last article, we looked at Gold prices staying within a relatively-clean range; even as the U.S. Dollar was showing signs of moving-higher. This highlighted the fact that Gold prices were seeming undeterred by rate hike fears.

Since then, we’ve seen another top-side expansion in Gold prices, as key levels at $1,248 and $1,250 (the Brexit Swing-Low) were taken-out by rising prices. Yesterday’s one-two combo of comments from San Francisco Fed President John Williams and then the Joint Address to the Union from Donald Trump served to spike us rate hike expectations-higher, and this led to an additional burst of strength in the Greenback; finally tilting price action in Gold a bit lower. This quick run of buyer-drive in the Greenback showed vividly in USD/JPY, EUR/USD and GBP/USD; but Gold prices continued to catch bids at current elevated levels. As we wrote this morning, for those looking to fade that quick rush of USD-strength, support in Gold prices could be pretty attractive for such a theme.

With odds for a March rate hike screaming-higher over the past 24 hours, Gold bulls will likely want to exercise a bit of prudence in the near-term. The primary point of consternation for Gold prices at the moment appears to be the possibility of a March rate hike. Over the previous two weeks, we’d seen the Fed make numerous hawkish denotations, but Gold prices were noticeably undeterred. But as we saw odds for March spike-higher yesterday, we began to see sellers taking control, albeit briefly. If this theme of USD-strength, led by rate hike expectations can continue for the next week, this could lead to an exciting reversal setup around the March FOMC meeting if the bank doesn’t actually hike.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

On the chart below, we get a bit closer with the one-hour variety; and as we can see from near-term price action, bearishness appears around-the-corner. As long as markets are ramping up expectations around March, we’ll likely see some degree of this continuing to take place. Nonetheless, the longer-term up-trend remains intact and likely will until markets are fairly certain that the Fed will actually hike rather than just talk about it.

This opens the door for near-term bearish price action to drive prices down to longer-term support; and if the Fed does back-down from March, the bullish move can be ready to resume.

Chart prepared by James Stanley

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Analys från DailyFX

EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness

Published

7 år ago

30 september, 2017

DailyFX

What’s inside:

EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling

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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.

Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.

Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).

Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.

For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.

EURUSD: Daily

—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.

Analys från DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4'17

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Analys från DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Published

7 år ago

29 september, 2017

DailyFX

British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter

Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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